For what it’s worth, I’d say (partly based on my experience as a grantmaker and on talking to lots of other grantmakers about similar things):
It’s notthe case that everyone who applies will get funding, and it is the case that track record and other signs of talent/skill would be taken into account
But people also have a decent chance of getting at least a few months of funding even if they have neither a very good track record nor clear signals of strong talent/skill
And people who think they don’t have much signals of strong talent/skill should probably in any case strongly consider just applying, because:
people often underestimate themselves or misjudge what grantmakers will be happy to take a bet on
applying doesn’t cost much (usually just a few hours) and the upside can be quite large
grantmakers may then be able to say what sort of ways they’d want the project plan to change or what sort of further evidence they’d want to see before making the grant
So if funding would be useful, people should probably just have a go and see what happens rather than spending lots of time trying to predict their odds by themselves
Is that only true for people who have a very good track reckord or are very talented or skilled?
For what it’s worth, I’d say (partly based on my experience as a grantmaker and on talking to lots of other grantmakers about similar things):
It’s not the case that everyone who applies will get funding, and it is the case that track record and other signs of talent/skill would be taken into account
But people also have a decent chance of getting at least a few months of funding even if they have neither a very good track record nor clear signals of strong talent/skill
And people who think they don’t have much signals of strong talent/skill should probably in any case strongly consider just applying, because:
people often underestimate themselves or misjudge what grantmakers will be happy to take a bet on
applying doesn’t cost much (usually just a few hours) and the upside can be quite large
grantmakers may then be able to say what sort of ways they’d want the project plan to change or what sort of further evidence they’d want to see before making the grant
So if funding would be useful, people should probably just have a go and see what happens rather than spending lots of time trying to predict their odds by themselves
See also Don’t think, just apply! (usually)