I largely agree with these considerations about the distribution of net impact of interventions (although with some possible disagreements, e.g. I think negative funging is also possible).
However, I actually wasn’t trying to comment on this at all! I was talking about the distribution of people’s estimates of impact around the true impact for a given intervention. Sorry for not being clearer :/
I largely agree with these considerations about the distribution of net impact of interventions (although with some possible disagreements, e.g. I think negative funging is also possible).
However, I actually wasn’t trying to comment on this at all! I was talking about the distribution of people’s estimates of impact around the true impact for a given intervention. Sorry for not being clearer :/