Thank Ben super useful.@Linch I was taking a very very broad view of judgment.Ben’s post is much better and breaks things done in a much nicer way.I also made a (not particularly successful) stab at explaining some aspects of not-foresight driven judgement here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/znaZXBY59Ln9SLrne/how-to-think-about-an-uncertain-future-lessons-from-other#Story_1__RAND_and_the_US_military
Thank Ben super useful.
@Linch I was taking a very very broad view of judgment.
Ben’s post is much better and breaks things done in a much nicer way.
I also made a (not particularly successful) stab at explaining some aspects of not-foresight driven judgement here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/znaZXBY59Ln9SLrne/how-to-think-about-an-uncertain-future-lessons-from-other#Story_1__RAND_and_the_US_military