FWIW my strongest criticism of prediction markets might look something like “Prediction Markets are very general purpose tools, and there’s been a lot of excitement about them from a technocratic perspective, but much less success at integrating them into making better decisions or providing novel information, especially relative to the counterfactual of eg paying forecasters or just making random guesses”
FWIW my strongest criticism of prediction markets might look something like “Prediction Markets are very general purpose tools, and there’s been a lot of excitement about them from a technocratic perspective, but much less success at integrating them into making better decisions or providing novel information, especially relative to the counterfactual of eg paying forecasters or just making random guesses”