In the assassination’s problem, people manipulate the market to win bets. No one is doing that in this case.
Also, knowing when wars will happen is socially beneficial because uncertainty increases the probability of war. If both sides think they are strong, they both take strong bargaining positions. When their offers are rejected they fight. More knowledge → bargains are more likely to be accepted.
Hey, how is this any different from the assassination problem within prediction markets?
In the assassination’s problem, people manipulate the market to win bets. No one is doing that in this case.
Also, knowing when wars will happen is socially beneficial because uncertainty increases the probability of war. If both sides think they are strong, they both take strong bargaining positions. When their offers are rejected they fight. More knowledge → bargains are more likely to be accepted.