There once was a shepherd boy who lived near a small town. One day, he heard rustling in the trees and thought it had a 10% chance of being a wolf, and did nothing, and nothing came of it. On another day, he once again heard rustling in the trees and thought it had a 10% chance of being a wolf, and did nothing, and nothing came of it. On a third day, he once again heard rustling in the trees and thought it had a 10% chance of being a wolf, and did nothing, and he and all of his flock were eaten by the wolf.
There once was a shepherd boy who lived near a small town. One day, he heard rustling in the trees and thought it had a 10% chance of being a wolf, and cried out “Wolf!,” and all the neighbors came to help but found no wolf. On another day, he heard rustling in the trees and thought it had a 10% chance of being a wolf, and cried out “Wolf!,” and all the neighbors came to help but found no wolf. On a third day, he once again heard rustling in the trees and thought it had a 10% chance of being a wolf, and cried out “Wolf!,” but none of his neighbors came to help because they thought there would be no wolf, and he and all of his flock were eaten by the wolf.
Related: A Failure, But Not of Prediction. The best case for x-risk reduction I’ve ever read, and it doesn’t even mention x-risks once.
Thanks for linking the post — I think it’s really great.
Note also, a comment from the post: