The best operationalisation here I can see is asking that we are able to attach a few questions if this form to the 2030 EA survey, then asking users to predict what the results will be. If we can get some sort of pre-commitment from whoever runs the survey to include the answers, even better.
One thing to think about (and maybe for people to weigh in on here) is that as you get further out in time there’s less and less evidence that forecasting performs well. It’s worth considering a 2025 date for these sorts of questions too for that reason.
Another operationalisation would be to ask to what extent the 80k top career recommendations have changed, e.g. what percentage of the current top recommendations wills till be in the top recommendations in 10 years.
It looks like a different part of the survey asked about cause prioritisation directly, which seems like it could be closer to what you wanted, my current plan (5 questions) for how to use the survey is here.
The best operationalisation here I can see is asking that we are able to attach a few questions if this form to the 2030 EA survey, then asking users to predict what the results will be. If we can get some sort of pre-commitment from whoever runs the survey to include the answers, even better.
One thing to think about (and maybe for people to weigh in on here) is that as you get further out in time there’s less and less evidence that forecasting performs well. It’s worth considering a 2025 date for these sorts of questions too for that reason.
Another operationalisation would be to ask to what extent the 80k top career recommendations have changed, e.g. what percentage of the current top recommendations wills till be in the top recommendations in 10 years.
This question is now open.
How many of the “priority paths” identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
I really like this and will work something out to this effect
Do you want to have a look at the 2019 EA survey and pick a few things it would be most useful to get predictions on? I’ll then write a few up.
I think the ‘Diets of EAs’ question could be a decent proxy for the prominence of animal welfare within EA. I think there are similar questions on metaculus for the general US population https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=vegetarian
I don’t see the ethics question as all that useful, since I think most of population ethics presupposes some form of consequentialism.
It looks like a different part of the survey asked about cause prioritisation directly, which seems like it could be closer to what you wanted, my current plan (5 questions) for how to use the survey is here.