Metaculus did briefly experiment with a finance spinoff but I don’t believe it was successful. I can definitely write a couple and I think they’d get a lot of interest, but I’d be surprised if making investment decisions based on metaculus was a winning strategy in the long-term. I’d be more optimistic, though still cautious, about political betting using metaculus predictions.
Here are some current questions which seem relevant, you can find more here.
Metaculus did briefly experiment with a finance spinoff but I don’t believe it was successful. I can definitely write a couple and I think they’d get a lot of interest, but I’d be surprised if making investment decisions based on metaculus was a winning strategy in the long-term. I’d be more optimistic, though still cautious, about political betting using metaculus predictions.
Here are some current questions which seem relevant, you can find more here.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4699/what-will-the-lbma-gold-price-be-in-us-dollars-on-december-31-2020/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4813/short-fuse-will-teslas-stock-price-close-below-1000-per-share-before-2021/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4119/what-will-be-the-sp-500-end-of-day-low-in-2020/
Thanks—very helpful.