Metaculus did briefly experiment with a finance spinoff but I don’t believe it was successful. I can definitely write a couple and I think they’d get a lot of interest, but I’d be surprised if making investment decisions based on metaculus was a winning strategy in the long-term. I’d be more optimistic, though still cautious, about political betting using metaculus predictions.
Here are some current questions which seem relevant, you can find more here.
For EAs who are investing to give, more questions about the market would be great, e.g. my comment here.
Metaculus did briefly experiment with a finance spinoff but I don’t believe it was successful. I can definitely write a couple and I think they’d get a lot of interest, but I’d be surprised if making investment decisions based on metaculus was a winning strategy in the long-term. I’d be more optimistic, though still cautious, about political betting using metaculus predictions.
Here are some current questions which seem relevant, you can find more here.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4699/what-will-the-lbma-gold-price-be-in-us-dollars-on-december-31-2020/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4813/short-fuse-will-teslas-stock-price-close-below-1000-per-share-before-2021/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4119/what-will-be-the-sp-500-end-of-day-low-in-2020/
Thanks—very helpful.
I’ve written two relevant questions:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/
You can also filter by category:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance—market