So perhaps the idea behind your first bullet point from the Economist is that a balanced power dynamic reduces either side’s credence that conflict will help their position?
Yes, that’s right!
And the follow up points about China’s economic influence tilt the balance in China’s favour, thereby raising again the chances of conflict?
Yes, but it’s more like China’s economic influence has tilted the balance in China’s favour for some years now (i.e. Belt & Road Initiative). It’s only recently with AUKUS that there’s more of a balance between China and the US overall.
However, in terms of economic influence, China still has a stronger foothold in ASEAN than the US.
Yes, that’s right!
Yes, but it’s more like China’s economic influence has tilted the balance in China’s favour for some years now (i.e. Belt & Road Initiative). It’s only recently with AUKUS that there’s more of a balance between China and the US overall.
However, in terms of economic influence, China still has a stronger foothold in ASEAN than the US.