ASEAN members probably benefit from a balance of power between the US and China, so AUKUS tips the scale slightly towards more balance. However, there is also a short history of flip-flopping support (e.g. Philippines preferring China at first then the US, Malaysia not liking the nine-dash line but still kowtowing to China).
“But China’s gambit makes stark the fact that America is unable to match it. And its lack of economic leadership remains, in the words of Bilahari Kausikan, Singapore’s former top diplomat, ‘the big hole in American strategy’.”
Although my guess is that the West’s soft power is still stronger in Southeast Asia than China’s, past colonial atrocities and the lack of restitution are still bottlenecks from better coordination. It’s quite persuasive to hear this, “look, these Western imperialists are at it again. I (China) am the only hope to a fairer and richer future.” For example, you get articles like this.
However, it’s also not clear to me that Western soft power still has foothold. The Chinese diaspora in Malaysia, a significant ethnic minority, is generally pro-China.
This is a good analysis! Just to extend / build on your argument, the key thing I’m interested in is the probability and extent of any armed conflict. There is a lot of game theory involved with this, but crudely speaking conflict can arise when one side sees an advantage in attacking first. This could be because they hold a stronger-but-not-dominant position or a weaker-but-not-crushed position, as it is in these positions that the payoffs to conflict are highest. So perhaps the idea behind your first bullet point from the Economist is that a balanced power dynamic reduces either side’s credence that conflict will help their position? And the follow up points about China’s economic influence tilt the balance in China’s favour, thereby raising again the chances of conflict?
So perhaps the idea behind your first bullet point from the Economist is that a balanced power dynamic reduces either side’s credence that conflict will help their position?
Yes, that’s right!
And the follow up points about China’s economic influence tilt the balance in China’s favour, thereby raising again the chances of conflict?
Yes, but it’s more like China’s economic influence has tilted the balance in China’s favour for some years now (i.e. Belt & Road Initiative). It’s only recently with AUKUS that there’s more of a balance between China and the US overall.
However, in terms of economic influence, China still has a stronger foothold in ASEAN than the US.
Key takeaways from The Economist’s latest briefing:
ASEAN members probably benefit from a balance of power between the US and China, so AUKUS tips the scale slightly towards more balance. However, there is also a short history of flip-flopping support (e.g. Philippines preferring China at first then the US, Malaysia not liking the nine-dash line but still kowtowing to China).
“But China’s gambit makes stark the fact that America is unable to match it. And its lack of economic leadership remains, in the words of Bilahari Kausikan, Singapore’s former top diplomat, ‘the big hole in American strategy’.”
Although my guess is that the West’s soft power is still stronger in Southeast Asia than China’s, past colonial atrocities and the lack of restitution are still bottlenecks from better coordination. It’s quite persuasive to hear this, “look, these Western imperialists are at it again. I (China) am the only hope to a fairer and richer future.” For example, you get articles like this.
However, it’s also not clear to me that Western soft power still has foothold. The Chinese diaspora in Malaysia, a significant ethnic minority, is generally pro-China.
This is a good analysis! Just to extend / build on your argument, the key thing I’m interested in is the probability and extent of any armed conflict. There is a lot of game theory involved with this, but crudely speaking conflict can arise when one side sees an advantage in attacking first. This could be because they hold a stronger-but-not-dominant position or a weaker-but-not-crushed position, as it is in these positions that the payoffs to conflict are highest. So perhaps the idea behind your first bullet point from the Economist is that a balanced power dynamic reduces either side’s credence that conflict will help their position? And the follow up points about China’s economic influence tilt the balance in China’s favour, thereby raising again the chances of conflict?
Yes, that’s right!
Yes, but it’s more like China’s economic influence has tilted the balance in China’s favour for some years now (i.e. Belt & Road Initiative). It’s only recently with AUKUS that there’s more of a balance between China and the US overall.
However, in terms of economic influence, China still has a stronger foothold in ASEAN than the US.