I like the no takeoff scenario intuitive analysis, and find that I also haven’t really imagined this as a concrete possibility. Generally, I like that you have presented clearly distinct scenarios and that the logic is explicit and coherent. Two thoughts that came to mind:
Somehow in the CAIS scenario, I also expect the rapid growth and the delegation of some economic and organizational work to AI to have some weird risks that involve something like humanity getting pushed away from the economic ecosystem while many autonomous systems are self-sustaining and stuck in a stupid and lifeless revenue-maximizing loop. I couldn’t really pinpoint an x-risk scenario here.
Recursive self-improvement can also happen within long periods of time, not necessarily leading to a fast takeoff, especially if the early gains are much easier than later gains (which might make more sense if we think of AI capability development as resulting mostly from computational improvements rather than algorithmic).
I like the no takeoff scenario intuitive analysis, and find that I also haven’t really imagined this as a concrete possibility. Generally, I like that you have presented clearly distinct scenarios and that the logic is explicit and coherent. Two thoughts that came to mind:
Somehow in the CAIS scenario, I also expect the rapid growth and the delegation of some economic and organizational work to AI to have some weird risks that involve something like humanity getting pushed away from the economic ecosystem while many autonomous systems are self-sustaining and stuck in a stupid and lifeless revenue-maximizing loop. I couldn’t really pinpoint an x-risk scenario here.
Recursive self-improvement can also happen within long periods of time, not necessarily leading to a fast takeoff, especially if the early gains are much easier than later gains (which might make more sense if we think of AI capability development as resulting mostly from computational improvements rather than algorithmic).
Ah! Richard Ngo had just written something related to the CAIS scenario :)