The median view was that the Long-Term Future fund was twice as effective as the EA Community fund
This strikes me as an odd statement to make, given that—so far—the two funds have essentially operated as the same fund and have given donations to the exact same organizations with the exact same stated purposes. That being said, I agree it’s reasonable to expect the grantmaking of the funds to diverge under the forthcoming new management and maybe this expectation is what is being priced in here.
I had written the same comment, but then deleted it once I found out that it wasn’t quite as true as I thought it was. In Nick’s writeup the grants come from different funds according to their purpose. (I had previously thought the most recent round of grants granted money to the exact same organisations.)
I don’t know how others answered this question, but personally I didn’t answer for how good I thought the last grants were to each other (ie, I wasn’t comparing CfAR/MIRI to Founders Pledge) or in expectation of changover in grant maker. I was thinking about something like whether I preferred funding over the next 5 years to go to organisations which focused on the far future vs community building, knowing that these might or might not converge. I’d expect over that period a bunch of things to come up that we don’t yet know about (in the same way that BERI did a year or so ago).
This strikes me as an odd statement to make, given that—so far—the two funds have essentially operated as the same fund and have given donations to the exact same organizations with the exact same stated purposes. That being said, I agree it’s reasonable to expect the grantmaking of the funds to diverge under the forthcoming new management and maybe this expectation is what is being priced in here.
I had written the same comment, but then deleted it once I found out that it wasn’t quite as true as I thought it was. In Nick’s writeup the grants come from different funds according to their purpose. (I had previously thought the most recent round of grants granted money to the exact same organisations.)
Ah, I see. There’s overlap on 80K and CEA, but the long-term future fund goes to CFAR and MIRI, whereas the EA Community fund goes to Founders Pledge.
I don’t know how others answered this question, but personally I didn’t answer for how good I thought the last grants were to each other (ie, I wasn’t comparing CfAR/MIRI to Founders Pledge) or in expectation of changover in grant maker. I was thinking about something like whether I preferred funding over the next 5 years to go to organisations which focused on the far future vs community building, knowing that these might or might not converge. I’d expect over that period a bunch of things to come up that we don’t yet know about (in the same way that BERI did a year or so ago).