Toby’s estimate for “unaligned artificial intelligence” is the only one that I meaningfully disagree with.
I would probably give lower numbers for the other anthropogenic risks as well, since it seems really hard to kill virtually everyone, and since the historical record suggests that permanent collapse is unlikely. (Complex civilizations were independently developed multiple times; major collapses, like the Bronze Age Collapse or fall of the Roman Empire, were reversed after a couple thousand years; it didn’t take that long to go from the Neolithic Revolution to the Industrial Revolution; etc.) But I haven’t thought enough about civilizational recovery or, for example, future biological weapons to feel firm in my higher level of optimism.
Toby’s estimate for “unaligned artificial intelligence” is the only one that I meaningfully disagree with.
I would probably give lower numbers for the other anthropogenic risks as well, since it seems really hard to kill virtually everyone, and since the historical record suggests that permanent collapse is unlikely. (Complex civilizations were independently developed multiple times; major collapses, like the Bronze Age Collapse or fall of the Roman Empire, were reversed after a couple thousand years; it didn’t take that long to go from the Neolithic Revolution to the Industrial Revolution; etc.) But I haven’t thought enough about civilizational recovery or, for example, future biological weapons to feel firm in my higher level of optimism.