It seems unlikely to me that hardware progress—or, at least, practically achievable hardware progress—will turn out to be sufficient for automating away all the tasks people can perform. If both hardware progress and research effort instead play similarly fundamental roles, then focusing on only a single factor (hardware) can only give us pretty limited predictive power.
Also, to a lesser extent: Even it is true that compute growth is the fundamental driver of AI progress, I’m somewhat skeptical that we could predict the necessary/sufficient amount of compute very well.
I don’t currently give them very much weight.
It seems unlikely to me that hardware progress—or, at least, practically achievable hardware progress—will turn out to be sufficient for automating away all the tasks people can perform. If both hardware progress and research effort instead play similarly fundamental roles, then focusing on only a single factor (hardware) can only give us pretty limited predictive power.
Also, to a lesser extent: Even it is true that compute growth is the fundamental driver of AI progress, I’m somewhat skeptical that we could predict the necessary/sufficient amount of compute very well.