You said in the podcast that the drop was ‘an order of magnitude’, so presumably your original estimate was 1-10%? I note that this is similar to Toby Ord’s in The Precipice (~10%) so perhaps that should be a good rule of thumb: if you are convinced by the classic arguments your estimate of existential catastrophe from AI should be around 10% and if you are unconvinced by specific arguments, but still think AI is likely to become very powerful in the next century, then it should be around 1%?
Those numbers sound pretty reasonable to me, but, since they’re roughly my own credences, it’s probably unsurprising that I’m describing them as “pretty reasonable” :)
On the other hand, depending on what counts as being “convinced” of the classic arguments, I think it’s plausible they actually support a substantially higher probability. I certainly know that some people assign a significantly higher than 10% chance to an AI-based existential catastrophe this century. And I believe that Toby’s estimate, for example, involved weighing up different possible views.
You said in the podcast that the drop was ‘an order of magnitude’, so presumably your original estimate was 1-10%? I note that this is similar to Toby Ord’s in The Precipice (~10%) so perhaps that should be a good rule of thumb: if you are convinced by the classic arguments your estimate of existential catastrophe from AI should be around 10% and if you are unconvinced by specific arguments, but still think AI is likely to become very powerful in the next century, then it should be around 1%?
Those numbers sound pretty reasonable to me, but, since they’re roughly my own credences, it’s probably unsurprising that I’m describing them as “pretty reasonable” :)
On the other hand, depending on what counts as being “convinced” of the classic arguments, I think it’s plausible they actually support a substantially higher probability. I certainly know that some people assign a significantly higher than 10% chance to an AI-based existential catastrophe this century. And I believe that Toby’s estimate, for example, involved weighing up different possible views.