I agree that it’s tricky, and am quite worried about how the framings we use may bias our views on the future of AI. I like the GDP/productivity growth perspective but feel free to answer the same questions for your preferred operationalisation.
Another possible framing: given a crystal ball showing the future, how likely is it that people would generally say that AI is the most important thing that happens this century?
As one operationalization, then, suppose we were to ask an economist in 2100: “Do you think that the counterfactual contribution of AI to American productivity growth between 2010 and 2100 was at least as large as the counterfactual contribution of electricity to American productivity growth between 1900 and 1940?” I think that the economist would probably agree—let’s say, 50% < p < 75% -- but I don’t have a very principled reason for thinking this and might change my mind if I thought a bit more.
Interesting. So you generally expect (well, with 50-75% probability) AI to become a significantly bigger deal, in terms of productivity growth, than it is now? I have not looked into this in detail but my understanding is that the contribution of AI to productivity growth right now is very small (and less than electricity).
If yes, what do you think causes this acceleration? It could simply be that AI is early-stage right now, akin to electricity in 1900 or earlier, and the large productivity gains arise when key innovations diffuse through society on a large scale. (However, many forms of AI are already widespread.) Or it could be that progress in AI itself accelerates, or perhaps linear progress in something like “general intelligence” translates to super-linear impact on productivity.
Interesting. So you generally expect (well, with 50-75% probability) AI to become a significantly bigger deal, in terms of productivity growth, than it is now? I have not looked into this in detail but my understanding is that the contribution of AI to productivity growth right now is very small (and less than electricity).
If yes, what do you think causes this acceleration? It could simply be that AI is early-stage right now, akin to electricity in 1900 or earlier, and the large productivity gains arise when key innovations diffuse through society on a large scale. (However, many forms of AI are already widespread.) Or it could be that progress in AI itself accelerates, or perhaps linear progress in something like “general intelligence” translates to super-linear impact on productivity.
I mostly have in mind the idea that AI is “early-stage,” as you say. The thought is that “general purpose technologies” (GPTs) like electricity, the steam engine, the computer, and (probably) AI tend to have very delayed effects.
For example, there was really major progress in computing in the middle of the 20th century, and lots of really major invents throughout the 70s and 80s, but computers didn’t have a noticeable impact on productivity growth until the 90s. The first serious electric motors were developed in the mid-19th century, but electricity didn’t have a big impact on productivity until the early 20th. There was also a big lag associated with steam power; it didn’t really matter until the middle of the 19th century, even though the first steam engines were developed centuries earlier.
So if AI takes several decades to have a large economic impact, this would be consistent with analagous cases from history. It can take a long time for the technology to improve, for engineers to get trained up, for complementary inventions to be developed, for useful infrastructure to be built, for organizational structures to get redesigned around the technology, etc. I don’t think it’d be very surprising if 80 years was enough for a lot of really major changes to happen, especially since the “time to impact” for GPTs seems to be shrinking over time.
Then I’m also factoring in the additional possibility that there will be some unusually dramatic acceleration, which is distinguishes AI from most earlier GPTs.
That seems plausible and is also consistent with Amara’s law (the idea that the impact of technology is often overestimated in the short run and underestimated in the long run).
I’m curious how likely you think it is that productivity growth will be significantly higher (i.e. levels at least comparable with electricity) for any reason, not just AI. I wouldn’t give this much more than 50%, as there is also some evidence that stagnation is on the cards (see e.g. 1, 2). But that would mean that you’re confident that the cause of higher productivity growth, assuming that this happens, would be AI? (Rather than, say, synthetic biotechnology, or genetic engineering, or some other technological advance, or some social change resulting in more optimisation for productivity.)
While AI is perhaps the most plausible single candidate, it’s still quite unclear, so I’d maybe say it’s 25-30% likely that AI in particular will cause significantly higher levels of productivity growth this century.
I agree that it’s tricky, and am quite worried about how the framings we use may bias our views on the future of AI. I like the GDP/productivity growth perspective but feel free to answer the same questions for your preferred operationalisation.
Another possible framing: given a crystal ball showing the future, how likely is it that people would generally say that AI is the most important thing that happens this century?
Interesting. So you generally expect (well, with 50-75% probability) AI to become a significantly bigger deal, in terms of productivity growth, than it is now? I have not looked into this in detail but my understanding is that the contribution of AI to productivity growth right now is very small (and less than electricity).
If yes, what do you think causes this acceleration? It could simply be that AI is early-stage right now, akin to electricity in 1900 or earlier, and the large productivity gains arise when key innovations diffuse through society on a large scale. (However, many forms of AI are already widespread.) Or it could be that progress in AI itself accelerates, or perhaps linear progress in something like “general intelligence” translates to super-linear impact on productivity.
I mostly have in mind the idea that AI is “early-stage,” as you say. The thought is that “general purpose technologies” (GPTs) like electricity, the steam engine, the computer, and (probably) AI tend to have very delayed effects.
For example, there was really major progress in computing in the middle of the 20th century, and lots of really major invents throughout the 70s and 80s, but computers didn’t have a noticeable impact on productivity growth until the 90s. The first serious electric motors were developed in the mid-19th century, but electricity didn’t have a big impact on productivity until the early 20th. There was also a big lag associated with steam power; it didn’t really matter until the middle of the 19th century, even though the first steam engines were developed centuries earlier.
So if AI takes several decades to have a large economic impact, this would be consistent with analagous cases from history. It can take a long time for the technology to improve, for engineers to get trained up, for complementary inventions to be developed, for useful infrastructure to be built, for organizational structures to get redesigned around the technology, etc. I don’t think it’d be very surprising if 80 years was enough for a lot of really major changes to happen, especially since the “time to impact” for GPTs seems to be shrinking over time.
Then I’m also factoring in the additional possibility that there will be some unusually dramatic acceleration, which is distinguishes AI from most earlier GPTs.
That seems plausible and is also consistent with Amara’s law (the idea that the impact of technology is often overestimated in the short run and underestimated in the long run).
I’m curious how likely you think it is that productivity growth will be significantly higher (i.e. levels at least comparable with electricity) for any reason, not just AI. I wouldn’t give this much more than 50%, as there is also some evidence that stagnation is on the cards (see e.g. 1, 2). But that would mean that you’re confident that the cause of higher productivity growth, assuming that this happens, would be AI? (Rather than, say, synthetic biotechnology, or genetic engineering, or some other technological advance, or some social change resulting in more optimisation for productivity.)
While AI is perhaps the most plausible single candidate, it’s still quite unclear, so I’d maybe say it’s 25-30% likely that AI in particular will cause significantly higher levels of productivity growth this century.