I think the effective duration on equities is roughly the inverse of the dividend yield + net buybacks, so with a ~2% yield, that’s ~50 years.
Some more here: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc040223.htm
I don’t think that makes much sense tbh.
I think the key point is just equities will also go down if real interest rates rise (all else equal) and plausibly by more than a 20 year bond.
I agree, although I’ll give you good odds the 20y moves more.
I think the effective duration on equities is roughly the inverse of the dividend yield + net buybacks, so with a ~2% yield, that’s ~50 years.
Some more here: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc040223.htm
I don’t think that makes much sense tbh.
I think the key point is just equities will also go down if real interest rates rise (all else equal) and plausibly by more than a 20 year bond.
I agree, although I’ll give you good odds the 20y moves more.