We are very skeptical about being able to make any progress on far future effects of population given the time cap we put on this report and our general skepticism towards being able to make accurate far future predictions. We use something closest to a “weighted quantitative model” but would only do a more explicit model of this for the top charity ideas we investigate deeper.
I think this is evidence that the time-cap model for research is problematic in at least some ways. I don’t think you can ignore long-term consequences just because you don’t have time to think them through, and if you find yourself running out of time before you really have to publish a report, the report should be very inconclusive.
We are very skeptical about being able to make any progress on far future effects of population given the time cap we put on this report and our general skepticism towards being able to make accurate far future predictions. We use something closest to a “weighted quantitative model” but would only do a more explicit model of this for the top charity ideas we investigate deeper.
I think this is evidence that the time-cap model for research is problematic in at least some ways. I don’t think you can ignore long-term consequences just because you don’t have time to think them through, and if you find yourself running out of time before you really have to publish a report, the report should be very inconclusive.