Obviously, I do still think there is a place for considering something more like “variance of impact”, but I don’t actually think that that dimension has played a large role in people’s historical reactions to grants we have made, and I don’t expect it to matter too much in the future.
Relatedly, I don’t recall anyone pointing out that funding a large number of ‘risky’ individuals, instead of a small number of ‘safe’ organisations, might be less risky (in the sense of lower variance), because the individual risks are largely independent, so you get a lot of portfolio diversification.
Relatedly, I don’t recall anyone pointing out that funding a large number of ‘risky’ individuals, instead of a small number of ‘safe’ organisations, might be less risky (in the sense of lower variance), because the individual risks are largely independent, so you get a lot of portfolio diversification.