“What are the top national/world priorities” is usually so complex, that it will remain to be a mostly subjective judgment. Then, how else would you resolve it than by looking for some kind of future consensus?
You could decompose that complex question into smaller questions which are more forecastable, and forecast those questions instead, in a similar way to what CSET is doing for geopolitical scenarios. For example:
Will a new category of government spending take up more than X% of a country’s GDP? If so, which category?
Will the Czech Republic see war in the next X years?
Will we see transformative technological change? In particular, will we see robust technological discontinuities in any of these X domains / some other sign-posts of transformative technological change?
...
This might require having infrastructure to create and answer large number of forecasting questions efficiently, and it will require having a good ontology of “priorities/mega-trends” (so most possible new priorities are included and forecasted), as well as a way to update that ontology.
You could decompose that complex question into smaller questions which are more forecastable, and forecast those questions instead, in a similar way to what CSET is doing for geopolitical scenarios. For example:
Will a new category of government spending take up more than X% of a country’s GDP? If so, which category?
Will the Czech Republic see war in the next X years?
Will we see transformative technological change? In particular, will we see robust technological discontinuities in any of these X domains / some other sign-posts of transformative technological change?
...
This might require having infrastructure to create and answer large number of forecasting questions efficiently, and it will require having a good ontology of “priorities/mega-trends” (so most possible new priorities are included and forecasted), as well as a way to update that ontology.