A few thoughts this post raised for me (not directed at OP specifically):
1. Does RAISE/the Hotel have a standardized way to measure the progress of people self-studying AI? If so, especially if it’s been vetted by AI risk organizations, it seems like that would go a long ways towards resolving this issue.
2. Does “ea organisations are unwilling to even endorse the hotel” refer to RAISE/Rethink Charity (very surprising & important evidence!), or other EA organizations without direct ties to the Hotel?
3. I would be curious what the marginal cost of adding a new resident is: if high, this would be a good reason to leave rooms unoccupied rather than funding “tragic” projects.
4. Strongly agreed: the EV post seemed like an overly complex toy model that was unlikely to predict real-world outcomes. I think high-level heuristics for evaluating impact would be much more useful/convincing (e.g. the framework laid out here)
5. In general, donors who take a “hits-based giving” approach to funding speculative projects in their personal network are likely to become associated with failed projects regardless of personal competence, so I don’t think this is evidence against the case the EA hotel makes. My relatively uninformed inside view is that the founder of the Kernel project should be associated with its failure, rather than Greg, and I think the outside view agrees.
6. I wonder how different the fundraising situation would be if it had started during the burst of initial enthusiasm/publicity surrounding the hotel?
2. RAISE very much does endorse the hotel (especially given that the founder works for and lives at the hotel, and the hotel was integral to their progress over the last 6 months). See e.g. here and here. We have no formal relationship with Rethink Charity (or Rethink Priorities in particular) - individuals at the hotel have applied for and got work from them independently.
3. The marginal cost of adding a new resident when already at ~75% capacity is ~£4k/yr.
6. I wonder too. I wonder also how different it would be if it was done after another 6-12 months of getting established.
1. Does RAISE/the Hotel have a standardized way to measure the progress of people self-studying AI? If so, especially if it’s been vetted by AI risk organizations, it seems like that would go a long ways towards resolving this issue.
Not yet, but it’s certainly a project that is on our radar. We also want to find ways to measure innate talent, so that people can tell earlier whether AIS research would be a good fit for them.
A few thoughts this post raised for me (not directed at OP specifically):
1. Does RAISE/the Hotel have a standardized way to measure the progress of people self-studying AI? If so, especially if it’s been vetted by AI risk organizations, it seems like that would go a long ways towards resolving this issue.
2. Does “ea organisations are unwilling to even endorse the hotel” refer to RAISE/Rethink Charity (very surprising & important evidence!), or other EA organizations without direct ties to the Hotel?
3. I would be curious what the marginal cost of adding a new resident is: if high, this would be a good reason to leave rooms unoccupied rather than funding “tragic” projects.
4. Strongly agreed: the EV post seemed like an overly complex toy model that was unlikely to predict real-world outcomes. I think high-level heuristics for evaluating impact would be much more useful/convincing (e.g. the framework laid out here)
5. In general, donors who take a “hits-based giving” approach to funding speculative projects in their personal network are likely to become associated with failed projects regardless of personal competence, so I don’t think this is evidence against the case the EA hotel makes. My relatively uninformed inside view is that the founder of the Kernel project should be associated with its failure, rather than Greg, and I think the outside view agrees.
6. I wonder how different the fundraising situation would be if it had started during the burst of initial enthusiasm/publicity surrounding the hotel?
2. RAISE very much does endorse the hotel (especially given that the founder works for and lives at the hotel, and the hotel was integral to their progress over the last 6 months). See e.g. here and here. We have no formal relationship with Rethink Charity (or Rethink Priorities in particular) - individuals at the hotel have applied for and got work from them independently.
3. The marginal cost of adding a new resident when already at ~75% capacity is ~£4k/yr.
6. I wonder too. I wonder also how different it would be if it was done after another 6-12 months of getting established.
Not yet, but it’s certainly a project that is on our radar. We also want to find ways to measure innate talent, so that people can tell earlier whether AIS research would be a good fit for them.