If the claims made here from p.13 on are true, it seems like the model can’t be reliable. This also disagrees. In general, it seems intuitively like it would be extremely hard to do this kind of statistics and extrapolate to the future with any serious confidence or rely on it for an estimate without a lot more thought. (I haven’t tried to look for critiques of the critiques and don’t claim to have a rigorous argument.)
Economic activity already goes to wherever it will be the most profitable. I don’t see why we would expect companies to predictably err.
I was thinking if climate has effects on growth rate, companies may not be capturing the full costs/benefits from that. My intuition that it could be extremely effective was something like “if an extremely blunt tool like global average temperature can have big effects on growth through improving local temperature in more places than it worsens local temperature, you can probably get much bigger effects by optimizing local temperature in a fine grained way through changing the locations of things.” Maybe that’s wrong, I don’t know.
OK, CSS5 will address this by looking more broadly at the literature and the articles you cite, or maybe I will just focus more on the economist survey.
If the claims made here from p.13 on are true, it seems like the model can’t be reliable. This also disagrees. In general, it seems intuitively like it would be extremely hard to do this kind of statistics and extrapolate to the future with any serious confidence or rely on it for an estimate without a lot more thought. (I haven’t tried to look for critiques of the critiques and don’t claim to have a rigorous argument.)
I was thinking if climate has effects on growth rate, companies may not be capturing the full costs/benefits from that. My intuition that it could be extremely effective was something like “if an extremely blunt tool like global average temperature can have big effects on growth through improving local temperature in more places than it worsens local temperature, you can probably get much bigger effects by optimizing local temperature in a fine grained way through changing the locations of things.” Maybe that’s wrong, I don’t know.
OK, CSS5 will address this by looking more broadly at the literature and the articles you cite, or maybe I will just focus more on the economist survey.