(I don’t really buy an overall take like “It seems unlikely” but it doesn’t feel that mysterious to me where the difference in take comes from. From the super zoomed out perspective 1200 AD is just yesterday from 1700AD, it seems like random fluctuations over 500 years are super normal and so my money would still be on “in 500 years there’s a good chance that China would have again been innovating and growing rapidly, and if not then in another 500 years it’s reasonably likely...” It makes sense to describe that situation as “nowhere close to IR” though. And it does sound like the super fast growth is a blip.)
Thanks, super helpful.
(I don’t really buy an overall take like “It seems unlikely” but it doesn’t feel that mysterious to me where the difference in take comes from. From the super zoomed out perspective 1200 AD is just yesterday from 1700AD, it seems like random fluctuations over 500 years are super normal and so my money would still be on “in 500 years there’s a good chance that China would have again been innovating and growing rapidly, and if not then in another 500 years it’s reasonably likely...” It makes sense to describe that situation as “nowhere close to IR” though. And it does sound like the super fast growth is a blip.)