The episode was fun to listen to! It was also my introduction to the podcast, which I’ll be listening to more of.
There were some good takes, but I was not impressed by the following section of Samo’s:
So, as US hegemony recedes globally, I think there will be more wars. Not necessarily in Europe, though I predict there will be wars in the following parts of Europe:
I think the Mediterranean, there will be one, there will be some large wars fought in the Mediterranean as there will be a new balance of power between European countries that aspire to be Mediterranean powers, especially France, and to a much lesser extent, Spain and Italy versus Eastern rising powers, such as Turkey.
He’s predicting that members of NATO will fight? What—in the next 50 years? What would a metaculus question asking about that poll? Less than 5% I’d guess.
… And I think there’ll be wars in all of the former Soviet spaces because the balance of power is going to be more and more unfavorable to the American side as the US slowly and inevitably has to withdraw from the world because it’s relative economic and political weight is smaller.
Wait, so there’ll be wars because the US is relatively weaker compared to … who excactly? China? Because I certainly doubt it’d be Russia who’ll rise from the ashes riding glorious Khrushchev levels of growth.
So I’m not talking about an absolute decline. It’s just that the very fact that China has risen means that even if Russia continues to grow weaker in the future, possibly due to sanctions, possibly due to political instability, et cetera, et cetera, China can still start projecting power all over the place.
That makes it seem like China will be the driving force behind wars in “all the Soviet spaces”? And Russia will be happy with that? That seems wild.
The episode was fun to listen to! It was also my introduction to the podcast, which I’ll be listening to more of.
There were some good takes, but I was not impressed by the following section of Samo’s:
He’s predicting that members of NATO will fight? What—in the next 50 years? What would a metaculus question asking about that poll? Less than 5% I’d guess.
Wait, so there’ll be wars because the US is relatively weaker compared to … who excactly? China? Because I certainly doubt it’d be Russia who’ll rise from the ashes riding glorious Khrushchev levels of growth.
That makes it seem like China will be the driving force behind wars in “all the Soviet spaces”? And Russia will be happy with that? That seems wild.