Arguably yes. Early British abolitionists were clearly influenced by American abolitionists, and abolitionism in Britain (and to a lesser degree America) were major factors in the success of abolitionism in other countries. The big uncertainties here are: 1) how deterministic vs stochastic was the success of abolitionism, and 2) even if it was very stochastic/we got “lucky”, how important was Lay in particular for tipping success over the edge.
The other thing I’ll say about this is to read Will MacAskill’s book on longtermism (What We Owe the Future) when it comes out, which makes a pretty good case that abolitionism’s success wasn’t predetermined, and also does a good job talking about how important Benjamin Lay in particular was for abolitionism (though Will doesn’t argue that abolitionism’s success was dependent on Lay; I’m not sure what odds Will would put on P(much slavery in 2021 | world without Benjamin Lay) - P(much slavery in 2021 | world with Benjamin Lay)).
Arguably yes. Early British abolitionists were clearly influenced by American abolitionists, and abolitionism in Britain (and to a lesser degree America) were major factors in the success of abolitionism in other countries. The big uncertainties here are: 1) how deterministic vs stochastic was the success of abolitionism, and 2) even if it was very stochastic/we got “lucky”, how important was Lay in particular for tipping success over the edge.
The other thing I’ll say about this is to read Will MacAskill’s book on longtermism (What We Owe the Future) when it comes out, which makes a pretty good case that abolitionism’s success wasn’t predetermined, and also does a good job talking about how important Benjamin Lay in particular was for abolitionism (though Will doesn’t argue that abolitionism’s success was dependent on Lay; I’m not sure what odds Will would put on P(much slavery in 2021 | world without Benjamin Lay) - P(much slavery in 2021 | world with Benjamin Lay)).