If AGI had been developed early and been highly dangerous, one can’t update on not seeing it
Anthropic reasoning might also apply to calculating the base rate of AGI; in the worlds where it existed and was beneficial, one might not be trying to calculate its a priori outside view.
Random thought on anthropics:
If AGI had been developed early and been highly dangerous, one can’t update on not seeing it
Anthropic reasoning might also apply to calculating the base rate of AGI; in the worlds where it existed and was beneficial, one might not be trying to calculate its a priori outside view.