This is true as far as it goes, but I think that many EAs, including me, would endorse the idea that “social movements are the [or at least a] key drivers of change in human history.” It seems perverse to assume otherwise on a forum whose entire point is to help the progress of a social movement that claims to e.g. help participants have 100x more positive impact in the world.
More generally, it’s true that your chance of convincing “constitutionally disinclined” people with two papers is low. But your chance is zero of convincing anyone with either (1) a bare assertion that there’s some good stuff there somewhere, or (2) the claim that they will understand you after spending 20 hours reading some very long books.
Also, I think your chance of convincing non-constitutionally-disinclined people with the right two papers is higher than you think. Although you’re correct that two papers directly arguing “you should use paradigm x instead of paradigm y” may not be super helpful, two pointers to “here are some interesting conclusions that you’ll come to if you apply paradigm x” can easily be enough to pique someone’s interest.
This is true as far as it goes, but I think that many EAs, including me, would endorse the idea that “social movements are the [or at least a] key drivers of change in human history.” It seems perverse to assume otherwise on a forum whose entire point is to help the progress of a social movement that claims to e.g. help participants have 100x more positive impact in the world.
More generally, it’s true that your chance of convincing “constitutionally disinclined” people with two papers is low. But your chance is zero of convincing anyone with either (1) a bare assertion that there’s some good stuff there somewhere, or (2) the claim that they will understand you after spending 20 hours reading some very long books.
Also, I think your chance of convincing non-constitutionally-disinclined people with the right two papers is higher than you think. Although you’re correct that two papers directly arguing “you should use paradigm x instead of paradigm y” may not be super helpful, two pointers to “here are some interesting conclusions that you’ll come to if you apply paradigm x” can easily be enough to pique someone’s interest.