My forecast is pretty heavily based on the GoodJudgment article How to Become a Superforecaster. According to it they identify Superforecasters each autumn and require forecasters to have made 100 forecasts (I assume 100 resolved), so now might actually be the worst time to start forecasting. It looks like if you started predicting now the 100th question wouldn’t close until the end of 2020. Therefore it seems very unlikely you’d be able to become a Superforecaster in this autumn’s batch.
[Note: alexrjl clarified over PM that I should treat this as “Given that I make a decision in July 2020 to try to become a Superforecaster” and not assume he would persist for the whole 2 years.]
This left most of my probability mass given you becoming a Superforecaster eventually on you making the 2021 batch, which requires you to both stick with it for over a year and perform well enough to become a Superforecaster. If I were to spend more time on this I would refine my estimates of how likely each of those are.
I assumed if you didn’t make the 2021 batch you’d probably call it quits before the 2022 batch or not be outperforming the GJO crowd by enough to make it, and even if you didn’t you made that batch you might not officially become a Superforecaster before 2023.
Overall I ended up with a 36% chance of you becoming a Superforecaster in the next 2 years. I’m curious to hear if your own estimate would be significantly different.
My forecast is pretty heavily based on the GoodJudgment article How to Become a Superforecaster. According to it they identify Superforecasters each autumn and require forecasters to have made 100 forecasts (I assume 100 resolved), so now might actually be the worst time to start forecasting. It looks like if you started predicting now the 100th question wouldn’t close until the end of 2020. Therefore it seems very unlikely you’d be able to become a Superforecaster in this autumn’s batch.
[Note: alexrjl clarified over PM that I should treat this as “Given that I make a decision in July 2020 to try to become a Superforecaster” and not assume he would persist for the whole 2 years.]
This left most of my probability mass given you becoming a Superforecaster eventually on you making the 2021 batch, which requires you to both stick with it for over a year and perform well enough to become a Superforecaster. If I were to spend more time on this I would refine my estimates of how likely each of those are.
I assumed if you didn’t make the 2021 batch you’d probably call it quits before the 2022 batch or not be outperforming the GJO crowd by enough to make it, and even if you didn’t you made that batch you might not officially become a Superforecaster before 2023.
Overall I ended up with a 36% chance of you becoming a Superforecaster in the next 2 years. I’m curious to hear if your own estimate would be significantly different.