Assume that I will try to become a GJP registered superforecaster, giving up all the time I currently spend on other platforms and only focusing on making Good judgement Open predictions to the best of my ability, choosing questions based on whether they’ll help me be a superforecaster, not how useful predictions are for the world. Let’s say I’ll give up after 2 years if I don’t make it.
When do I become a superforecaster? Time interval now->2022, with an open upper bound indicating “didn’t make it”.
If it matters, assume I haven’t seen your distribution, but if you also want to do a seperate distribution assuming I have seen it, that might be fun (not sure if it would converge though).
My forecast is pretty heavily based on the GoodJudgment article How to Become a Superforecaster. According to it they identify Superforecasters each autumn and require forecasters to have made 100 forecasts (I assume 100 resolved), so now might actually be the worst time to start forecasting. It looks like if you started predicting now the 100th question wouldn’t close until the end of 2020. Therefore it seems very unlikely you’d be able to become a Superforecaster in this autumn’s batch.
[Note: alexrjl clarified over PM that I should treat this as “Given that I make a decision in July 2020 to try to become a Superforecaster” and not assume he would persist for the whole 2 years.]
This left most of my probability mass given you becoming a Superforecaster eventually on you making the 2021 batch, which requires you to both stick with it for over a year and perform well enough to become a Superforecaster. If I were to spend more time on this I would refine my estimates of how likely each of those are.
I assumed if you didn’t make the 2021 batch you’d probably call it quits before the 2022 batch or not be outperforming the GJO crowd by enough to make it, and even if you didn’t you made that batch you might not officially become a Superforecaster before 2023.
Overall I ended up with a 36% chance of you becoming a Superforecaster in the next 2 years. I’m curious to hear if your own estimate would be significantly different.
You didn’t misunderstand! The intention was that you ask any question that’s interesting to you, including personal questions. I’m assuming you’re more interested in the first question you asked, so I’ll answer that unless you feel otherwise :)
Assume that I will try to become a GJP registered superforecaster, giving up all the time I currently spend on other platforms and only focusing on making Good judgement Open predictions to the best of my ability, choosing questions based on whether they’ll help me be a superforecaster, not how useful predictions are for the world. Let’s say I’ll give up after 2 years if I don’t make it.
When do I become a superforecaster? Time interval now->2022, with an open upper bound indicating “didn’t make it”.
If it matters, assume I haven’t seen your distribution, but if you also want to do a seperate distribution assuming I have seen it, that might be fun (not sure if it would converge though).
My forecast is pretty heavily based on the GoodJudgment article How to Become a Superforecaster. According to it they identify Superforecasters each autumn and require forecasters to have made 100 forecasts (I assume 100 resolved), so now might actually be the worst time to start forecasting. It looks like if you started predicting now the 100th question wouldn’t close until the end of 2020. Therefore it seems very unlikely you’d be able to become a Superforecaster in this autumn’s batch.
[Note: alexrjl clarified over PM that I should treat this as “Given that I make a decision in July 2020 to try to become a Superforecaster” and not assume he would persist for the whole 2 years.]
This left most of my probability mass given you becoming a Superforecaster eventually on you making the 2021 batch, which requires you to both stick with it for over a year and perform well enough to become a Superforecaster. If I were to spend more time on this I would refine my estimates of how likely each of those are.
I assumed if you didn’t make the 2021 batch you’d probably call it quits before the 2022 batch or not be outperforming the GJO crowd by enough to make it, and even if you didn’t you made that batch you might not officially become a Superforecaster before 2023.
Overall I ended up with a 36% chance of you becoming a Superforecaster in the next 2 years. I’m curious to hear if your own estimate would be significantly different.
Also had misunderstood this as being personal questions. If you prefer, replace me with something like:
A randomly selected person from the top ~50 recently active Metaculus users (so maybe this list or this one), excluding those who are already supers.
You didn’t misunderstand! The intention was that you ask any question that’s interesting to you, including personal questions. I’m assuming you’re more interested in the first question you asked, so I’ll answer that unless you feel otherwise :)
Ok awesome, thanks!