ii) But, actors making up a large proportion of total financial assets may have constraints other than maximising impact, which could lead the community to spend faster than the aggregate of the community thinks is correct:
Large donors usually want to donate before they die (and Open Phil’s donors have pledged to do so). (Of course, it’s arguable whether this should be modeled as such a constraint or as a claim about optimal timing).
Other holders of financial capital may not have enough resources to realistically make up for that.
Thanks for pulling this out, I think this is the heart of the argument. (I think it’s quite valuable to show how the case relies on this, as it helps to cancel a possible reading where everyone should assume that they personally will have better judgement than the aggregate community.)
I think it’s an interesting case, and worth considering carefully. We might want to consider:
Whether this will actually lead to incorrect spending?
My central best guess is that there will be enough flow of other money into longtermist-aligned purposes that this won’t be an issue in coming decades, but I’m quite uncertain about that
What are the best options for mitigating it?
Earning to save is certainly one possibility, but we could also consider e.g. whether there are direct work opportunities which would have a significant effect of passing capital into the hands of future longtermists
Thanks for pulling this out, I think this is the heart of the argument. (I think it’s quite valuable to show how the case relies on this, as it helps to cancel a possible reading where everyone should assume that they personally will have better judgement than the aggregate community.)
I think it’s an interesting case, and worth considering carefully. We might want to consider:
Whether this will actually lead to incorrect spending?
My central best guess is that there will be enough flow of other money into longtermist-aligned purposes that this won’t be an issue in coming decades, but I’m quite uncertain about that
What are the best options for mitigating it?
Earning to save is certainly one possibility, but we could also consider e.g. whether there are direct work opportunities which would have a significant effect of passing capital into the hands of future longtermists
Could you say more about what you might have in mind here?