So to be 100x of the default rate, one should have put less than 1% on events in Ukraine unfolding as they are now. This feels too low to me (and I registered some predictions in personal communications about a year ago supporting that — thou done in a hurry of email exchange).
I think a reasonable forecaster working on nuclear risk should have put significant worsening of the situation at above 10% (just from crude base rates of Russia’s “foreign policy” and past engagement in Ukraine). And I think among Russia-Ukrainian conflicts, this one, while surprising (to me subjectively) in a few ways, is not in the bottom 10% (and not even in the bottom third for me in terms of Russia-NATO tensions — based on the past forecasts). So one should go above baseline but no more than an order of magnitude, imo.
So to be 100x of the default rate, one should have put less than 1% on events in Ukraine unfolding as they are now. This feels too low to me (and I registered some predictions in personal communications about a year ago supporting that — thou done in a hurry of email exchange).
I think a reasonable forecaster working on nuclear risk should have put significant worsening of the situation at above 10% (just from crude base rates of Russia’s “foreign policy” and past engagement in Ukraine). And I think among Russia-Ukrainian conflicts, this one, while surprising (to me subjectively) in a few ways, is not in the bottom 10% (and not even in the bottom third for me in terms of Russia-NATO tensions — based on the past forecasts). So one should go above baseline but no more than an order of magnitude, imo.
Ah, that’s a good argument, thanks! Updating downwards.