I can’t emphasize the exponential growth thing enough. A look at the next page on this forum shows CEA wanting to hire another 13 people. Meanwhile GiveWell were boasting of having grown to 18 full time staff back in March; now they have 30.
This. I haven’t talked to him personally, but that’s the sort of thing that has some of us who made his article one of the most upvoted ever worried about a meta trap, where organisations keep adding jobs for EAs they know without in advance setting out credible limits for when this should stop.
These increases seem to be in line with the total growth of the EA movement, so doesn’t look like a meta-trap.
without in advance setting out credible limits for when this should stop.
GiveWell/Open Phil have said their target is for their budget to be 10% of money moved per year.
CEA is more complex because it’s actually 4 independently run projects, but each project thinks carefully about what a marginal person would do and whether it will generate returns. Hiring is a difficult and costly business, so you generally don’t do it just for the fun of it.
My guess is actually that many meta-projects underhire, because their donors like to see them maintain a large positive leverage ratio, whereas in fact it would be optimal to invest more now to get more growth in 2-5 years.
This. I haven’t talked to him personally, but that’s the sort of thing that has some of us who made his article one of the most upvoted ever worried about a meta trap, where organisations keep adding jobs for EAs they know without in advance setting out credible limits for when this should stop.
These increases seem to be in line with the total growth of the EA movement, so doesn’t look like a meta-trap.
GiveWell/Open Phil have said their target is for their budget to be 10% of money moved per year.
CEA is more complex because it’s actually 4 independently run projects, but each project thinks carefully about what a marginal person would do and whether it will generate returns. Hiring is a difficult and costly business, so you generally don’t do it just for the fun of it.
My guess is actually that many meta-projects underhire, because their donors like to see them maintain a large positive leverage ratio, whereas in fact it would be optimal to invest more now to get more growth in 2-5 years.