Shouldn’t your lower bound for the 50% interval be higher than for the 80% interval?
If the intervals were centered—i.e., spanning the 10th to 90th and the 25th to 75th percentile, respectively—then it should be, yes.
I could now claim that I wasn’t giving centered intervals, but I think what is really going on is that my estimates are not diachronically consistent even if I make them within 1 minute of each other.
If the intervals were centered—i.e., spanning the 10th to 90th and the 25th to 75th percentile, respectively—then it should be, yes.
I could now claim that I wasn’t giving centered intervals, but I think what is really going on is that my estimates are not diachronically consistent even if I make them within 1 minute of each other.
I also now think that the lower end of the 80% interval should probably be more like $5-15B.