Mexico’s GDP per capita and Gini coefficient have been about constant for the past decade. I can’t find evidence on changes in college education attainment. So it’s not apparent that they are pushing forward along this transition. Moreover, Mexico only constitutes ~half of illegal immigration, and many Latin American countries are poorer (in fact they are behind the $6k transition peak).
All the data+papers presented before and in this post.
None of them asked Mexican people how content they are to stay or immigrate.
The obvious, the number of kids being born in Mexico peaked in 1994 at 2.9 million and has fallen to 2.16 million births in 2018. If emigration rates remain same we can expect lower number of Mexicans trying to emigrate.
Mexico’s population is still growing. So if the emigration rate per 1000 people remains constant, the number of annual emigres will grow year over year, just at a lower rate than it would grow if fertility were higher.
When fertility rates fall, the pulls of home country are greater for emigres as parents age, + parents are less enthusiastic about kids emigrating in the first place.
Please provide a source. It may be the case that people with aging families to support desire to emigrate in order to send remittances.
Mexican emigration has gone down similar to Ireland, Japan, UK etc
It is still a vastly different country.
Around 5% of those wishing to move to US actually moved.
And many more tried to move but were apprehended at the border, or chose not to move because they were afraid of being apprehended at the border or otherwise policed.
The number of Mexicans attempting to cross the border illegally has crashed from a high of 1.615 million in 2000 to 152,257 in 2018
You’re confusing apprehensions with crossing attempts and neglecting to mention the increase in apprehensions of non-Mexican migrants.
However neither FPGen or Democrats are advocating open borders, I doubt that even under the least restrictive proposals US net immigration will exceed 1 million average over the next 20 years
Whether or not a country has open borders is not a question of the quantity of immigrants who enter the country.
I just ignore them.
Fine, but don’t then tell me I’m wrong when I’m not.
Second of all, the American right-wing is correct when they perceive that America fails to reliably control the southern border or police the undocumented migrant population.
I look for universal definitions, open borders means that anyone can come and live in USA
That’s probably what would happen here: assuming that you make it to the border, then CBP will not have the power to detain you, ICE will not exist, you will be “legally protected,” you will not have a criminal record, and you will have a “pathway to citizenship.”
I can’t find evidence on changes in college education attainment. So it’s not apparent that they are pushing forward along this transition.
I am not sure why college education is so important. Their education levels have been consistently increasing as I pointed to earlier. repeating education graphic AGAIN
Given their increases in education, it is a good assumption to make that their college level education is also increasing.
None of them asked Mexican people how content they are to stay or immigrate.
I presented actual data on total mexican immigrants, and undocumented mexican immigrants. Given this hard data on actual migration opinion polls have very little relevance
Mexico’s population is still growing. So if the emigration rate per 1000 people remains constant, the number of annual emigres will grow year over year, just at a lower rate than it would grow if fertility were higher.
Repeating AGAIN net immigration from Mexico in the last 10 years in negative. There is no increase in number of emigres. There has been a DECREASE.
It may be the case that people with aging families to support desire to emigrate in order to send remittances.
Dont speculate. When fertility rate falls to replacement or close to it, when they are Upper Middle Income like Mexico is, the problem is not money, it is time spent with family.
Moreover, Mexico only constitutes ~half of illegal immigration
This is because population of undocumented mexican immigrants decreased from 6.9 to 4.9 million, while that of other countries stayed basically flat changing from 5.3 million to 5.5 million
“Around 5% of those wishing to move to US actually moved.”
And many more tried to move but were apprehended at the border, or chose not to move because they were afraid of being apprehended at the border or otherwise policed.
AGAIN mexican immigrants in US is net negative over the last 10 years. We are talking about worldwide immigration to USA not just about southern border. When people arrive by air the policing on the border is not relevant. Latin amercian immigration was only about a third in the years 2010-2017, the rest was from all over the world and visa overstays are the issue there
Finally it is not just US policies that effect how many people come in, it is also fundamentally about the how well the sending countries are doing. In general life is much better in the sending countries and US will see a drop off in number of immigrants coming in.
You’re confusing apprehensions with crossing attempts and neglecting to mention the increase in apprehensions of non-Mexican migrants.
I explicitly talked about non-mexican immigrants and assumed 3.2 million of them would make it into the USA in the next 10 years. Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador are are behind in terms of education and as it changes over the next decade the number of people emigrating will start to fall.
Second of all, the American right-wing is correct when they perceive that America fails to reliably control the southern border or police the undocumented migrant population.
Between 2010-17 1.6 immigrants from latin america (excluding mexico) came in, this is 250,000 a year or .1% of US population per year, which is reasonable control of border given the enormous size of US border, the vast income and social disparities between US and the southern countries.
even so the right says US has open borders, which is laughable.
“I look for universal definitions, open borders means that anyone can come and live in USA”
That’s probably what would happen here: assuming that you make it to the border, then CBP will not have the power to detain you, ICE will not exist, you will be “legally protected,” you will not have a criminal record, and you will have a “pathway to citizenship.”
Like I said I look for universal definitions, if there was an open border, then there would be no work/tourist visas, you can just come and work or play or visit, path to citizenship would not matter (why bother?), nobody would need to make it to the border, they would just take a flight in.
No matter who becomes president or how congress/senate changes I expect immigrants in US to increase by less than 1 million a year which is .31% of population this is hardly a disaster or emergency, or open borders, or lack of control.
Mexico’s GDP per capita and Gini coefficient have been about constant for the past decade. I can’t find evidence on changes in college education attainment. So it’s not apparent that they are pushing forward along this transition. Moreover, Mexico only constitutes ~half of illegal immigration, and many Latin American countries are poorer (in fact they are behind the $6k transition peak).
None of them asked Mexican people how content they are to stay or immigrate.
Mexico’s population is still growing. So if the emigration rate per 1000 people remains constant, the number of annual emigres will grow year over year, just at a lower rate than it would grow if fertility were higher.
Please provide a source. It may be the case that people with aging families to support desire to emigrate in order to send remittances.
It is still a vastly different country.
And many more tried to move but were apprehended at the border, or chose not to move because they were afraid of being apprehended at the border or otherwise policed.
You’re confusing apprehensions with crossing attempts and neglecting to mention the increase in apprehensions of non-Mexican migrants.
Whether or not a country has open borders is not a question of the quantity of immigrants who enter the country.
Fine, but don’t then tell me I’m wrong when I’m not.
Second of all, the American right-wing is correct when they perceive that America fails to reliably control the southern border or police the undocumented migrant population.
That’s probably what would happen here: assuming that you make it to the border, then CBP will not have the power to detain you, ICE will not exist, you will be “legally protected,” you will not have a criminal record, and you will have a “pathway to citizenship.”
I am not sure why college education is so important. Their education levels have been consistently increasing as I pointed to earlier. repeating education graphic AGAIN
Given their increases in education, it is a good assumption to make that their college level education is also increasing.
I presented actual data on total mexican immigrants, and undocumented mexican immigrants. Given this hard data on actual migration opinion polls have very little relevance
Repeating AGAIN net immigration from Mexico in the last 10 years in negative. There is no increase in number of emigres. There has been a DECREASE.
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/mexican-immigrants-united-states
Dont speculate. When fertility rate falls to replacement or close to it, when they are Upper Middle Income like Mexico is, the problem is not money, it is time spent with family.
This is because population of undocumented mexican immigrants decreased from 6.9 to 4.9 million, while that of other countries stayed basically flat changing from 5.3 million to 5.5 million
AGAIN mexican immigrants in US is net negative over the last 10 years. We are talking about worldwide immigration to USA not just about southern border. When people arrive by air the policing on the border is not relevant. Latin amercian immigration was only about a third in the years 2010-2017, the rest was from all over the world and visa overstays are the issue there
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/16/686056668/for-seventh-consecutive-year-visa-overstays-exceeded-illegal-border-crossings
https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2018-09/camarota-imm-pop-sept-18-t1.jpg
Finally it is not just US policies that effect how many people come in, it is also fundamentally about the how well the sending countries are doing. In general life is much better in the sending countries and US will see a drop off in number of immigrants coming in.
I explicitly talked about non-mexican immigrants and assumed 3.2 million of them would make it into the USA in the next 10 years. Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador are are behind in terms of education and as it changes over the next decade the number of people emigrating will start to fall.
Between 2010-17 1.6 immigrants from latin america (excluding mexico) came in, this is 250,000 a year or .1% of US population per year, which is reasonable control of border given the enormous size of US border, the vast income and social disparities between US and the southern countries.
https://cis.org/Report/Record-445-Million-Immigrants-2017
Overall US total US immigrant population is increasing only by less than .33% a year, and U.S. Population Growth In 2019 Is Slowest In A Century
even so the right says US has open borders, which is laughable.
Like I said I look for universal definitions, if there was an open border, then there would be no work/tourist visas, you can just come and work or play or visit, path to citizenship would not matter (why bother?), nobody would need to make it to the border, they would just take a flight in.
No matter who becomes president or how congress/senate changes I expect immigrants in US to increase by less than 1 million a year which is .31% of population this is hardly a disaster or emergency, or open borders, or lack of control.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States#Historical_Census_Population
US has one of the slowest increases of population, and this 2020′s is likely to be even slower.