Research into the dual-use risks of asteroid safety
Space Governance
There is a small base rate of asteroids/comets hitting the Earth naturally. There are efforts out there to deflect/destroy asteroids if they were about to hit Earth. However, based on the relative risk of anthropogenic vs natural risk, we think that getting better at manipulating space objects is dual-use as it would allow malevolent actors to weaponize asteroids, and that this risk could be orders of magnitudes larger. We want to see research on what kinds of asteroid defense techniques are likely to not lead towards concomitant progress in asteroid offense techniques.
“This ‘dual-use’ concern mirrors other kinds of projects aimed at making us safer, but which pose their own risks, like ‘gain of function’ research on diseases. In such cases, effective governance may be required to regulate the dual-use technology, especially through monitoring its uses, in order to avoid the outcomes where a malign actor gets their hands on it. With international buy-in, a monitoring network can be set up, and strict regulations around technology with the potential to divert planetary bodies can (and probably should) be implemented.”
“A cost benefit analysis that examines the pros and cons of developing asteroid deflection technology in a rigorous and numerical way should be a high priority. Such an analysis would consider the expected value of damage of natural asteroid impacts in comparison with the increased risk from developing technology (and possibly examine the opportunity cost of what could otherwise be done with the R&D funding). An example of such an analysis exists in the space of global health pandemics research, which would be a good starting point. I believe it is unclear at this time whether the benefits outweigh the risks, or vice versa (though at this time I lean towards the risks outweighing the benefits – an unfortunate conclusion for a PhD candidate researching asteroid exploration and deflection to come to).
Research regarding the technical feasibility of deflecting an asteroid into a specific target (e.g. a city) should be examined, however this analysis comes with drawbacks (see section on information hazards).
We should also consider policy and international cooperation solutions that can be set in place today to reduce the likelihood of accidental and malicious asteroid deflection occurring.
“It is of course sensible to seek cost effective reduction of risks from all hazards to our civilization—even low probability hazards, of which many may remain unidentified. At a total cost of some $300 million, Spaceguard arguably constitutes a reasonable measure of defence against the impact hazard. But premature deployment of any asteroid orbit modification capability, in the real world and in light of well-established human frailty and fallibility, may introduce a new category of danger that dwarfs that posed by the objects themselves.”
Research into the dual-use risks of asteroid safety
Space Governance
There is a small base rate of asteroids/comets hitting the Earth naturally. There are efforts out there to deflect/destroy asteroids if they were about to hit Earth. However, based on the relative risk of anthropogenic vs natural risk, we think that getting better at manipulating space objects is dual-use as it would allow malevolent actors to weaponize asteroids, and that this risk could be orders of magnitudes larger. We want to see research on what kinds of asteroid defense techniques are likely to not lead towards concomitant progress in asteroid offense techniques.
See:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RZf2KqeMFZZEpvBHp/risks-from-asteroids
“This ‘dual-use’ concern mirrors other kinds of projects aimed at making us safer, but which pose their own risks, like ‘gain of function’ research on diseases. In such cases, effective governance may be required to regulate the dual-use technology, especially through monitoring its uses, in order to avoid the outcomes where a malign actor gets their hands on it. With international buy-in, a monitoring network can be set up, and strict regulations around technology with the potential to divert planetary bodies can (and probably should) be implemented.”
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vuXH2XAeAYLc4Hxyj/why-making-asteroid-deflection-tech-might-be-bad
“A cost benefit analysis that examines the pros and cons of developing asteroid deflection technology in a rigorous and numerical way should be a high priority. Such an analysis would consider the expected value of damage of natural asteroid impacts in comparison with the increased risk from developing technology (and possibly examine the opportunity cost of what could otherwise be done with the R&D funding). An example of such an analysis exists in the space of global health pandemics research, which would be a good starting point. I believe it is unclear at this time whether the benefits outweigh the risks, or vice versa (though at this time I lean towards the risks outweighing the benefits – an unfortunate conclusion for a PhD candidate researching asteroid exploration and deflection to come to).
Research regarding the technical feasibility of deflecting an asteroid into a specific target (e.g. a city) should be examined, however this analysis comes with drawbacks (see section on information hazards).
We should also consider policy and international cooperation solutions that can be set in place today to reduce the likelihood of accidental and malicious asteroid deflection occurring.
https://www.nature.com/articles/368501a0.pdf
“It is of course sensible to seek cost effective reduction of risks from all hazards to our civilization—even low probability hazards, of which many may remain unidentified. At a total cost of some $300 million, Spaceguard arguably constitutes a reasonable measure of defence against the impact hazard. But premature deployment of any asteroid orbit modification capability, in the real world and in light of well-established human frailty and fallibility, may introduce a new category of danger that dwarfs that posed by the objects themselves.”