I broadly agree—I think for any realistic analysis of this area, the question isn’t whether regulation completely solves the problem, but what relative reduction is achievable. I tried to model this in the BOTEC by being fairly conservative about the decrease in exposure:
However, these inputs are also accounting for the probability of success of passing regulation at all—so it’s reasonable to think these estimates should be even more conservative.
This is action-guiding too—selecting which countries to work in would need to consider the domestic regulatory environment and what the supply chain looks like in that context.
And I think your point is supported by my impression of the experiences of the Lead Exposure Elimination Project. Their impact in Malawi, their first target country, wasn’t through passing a law, but in getting pre-existing standards enforced and monitored. If any org was pursue organophosphates as a cause area in the future, I think assisting monitoring and compliance would be an important component.
I broadly agree—I think for any realistic analysis of this area, the question isn’t whether regulation completely solves the problem, but what relative reduction is achievable. I tried to model this in the BOTEC by being fairly conservative about the decrease in exposure:
However, these inputs are also accounting for the probability of success of passing regulation at all—so it’s reasonable to think these estimates should be even more conservative.
This is action-guiding too—selecting which countries to work in would need to consider the domestic regulatory environment and what the supply chain looks like in that context.
And I think your point is supported by my impression of the experiences of the Lead Exposure Elimination Project. Their impact in Malawi, their first target country, wasn’t through passing a law, but in getting pre-existing standards enforced and monitored. If any org was pursue organophosphates as a cause area in the future, I think assisting monitoring and compliance would be an important component.