I haven’t laid out a particular argument because I think the AI argument is by some way the strongest, and I haven’t done the work to flesh out the alternatives.
I guess I thought you were making a claim like “the only possible arguments that will work need to rest on AI”. If instead you’re making a claim like “among the arguments people have cleanly articulated to date, the only ones that appear to work are those which rest on AI” that’s a much weaker claim (and I think it’s important to disambiguate that that’s the version you’re making, as my guess is that there are other arguments which give you a Time of Perils with much lower probability than AI but still significant probability; but that AFAIK nobody’s worked out the boundaries of what’s implied by the arguments).
I haven’t laid out a particular argument because I think the AI argument is by some way the strongest, and I haven’t done the work to flesh out the alternatives.
I guess I thought you were making a claim like “the only possible arguments that will work need to rest on AI”. If instead you’re making a claim like “among the arguments people have cleanly articulated to date, the only ones that appear to work are those which rest on AI” that’s a much weaker claim (and I think it’s important to disambiguate that that’s the version you’re making, as my guess is that there are other arguments which give you a Time of Perils with much lower probability than AI but still significant probability; but that AFAIK nobody’s worked out the boundaries of what’s implied by the arguments).