But it’s hard to see how we could chop 3−4 orders of magnitude off these threats just by settling Mars. Are we to imagine that [...] a dastardly group of scientists designs and unleashes a pandemic which kills every human living on earth, but cannot manage to transport the pathogen to other planets within our solar system?
Nitpick: I was under the impression that a substantial portion of the “engineered pandemic” x-risk (as estimated in The Precipice) came from accidental lab release of diseases that someone did gain-of-function release on. Space settlement would probably eliminate that x-risk.
(This doesn’t really change any of your conclusions though.)
Nitpick: I was under the impression that a substantial portion of the “engineered pandemic” x-risk (as estimated in The Precipice) came from accidental lab release of diseases that someone did gain-of-function release on. Space settlement would probably eliminate that x-risk. [emphasis mine]
This feels wrong to me for Mars specifically, but I agree with interstellar settlements.
Oh idk, I don’t think about bio x-risk much. (Though intuitively I feel like the lab leak story seems more likely than the malicious actor story; see terrorism is not effective and terrorism is not about terror; but that’s entirely a guess and not one I’d stand behind.)
Nitpick: I was under the impression that a substantial portion of the “engineered pandemic” x-risk (as estimated in The Precipice) came from accidental lab release of diseases that someone did gain-of-function release on. Space settlement would probably eliminate that x-risk.
(This doesn’t really change any of your conclusions though.)
This feels wrong to me for Mars specifically, but I agree with interstellar settlements.
Thanks! That’s definitely one way that space settlement could help with engineered pandemic x-risk.
I’m curious: do you think we should put 1⁄30 on humanity being wiped out (or close) by 2100 from a lab leak? That might be a bit high to some ears.
Oh idk, I don’t think about bio x-risk much. (Though intuitively I feel like the lab leak story seems more likely than the malicious actor story; see terrorism is not effective and terrorism is not about terror; but that’s entirely a guess and not one I’d stand behind.)