I want the world in 30 years time to be in as good a state as it can be in order to face whatever challenges that will come next.
I like this! I sometimes use a perspective which is pretty close (though often think about 50 years rather than 30 years, and hold it in conjunction with “what are the challenges we might need to face in the next 50 years?”). I think 30 vs 50 years is a kind-of interesting question. I’ve thought about 50 because if I imagine e.g. that we’re going to face critical junctures with the development of AI in 40 years, that’s within the scope where I can imagine it being impacted by causal pathways that I can envision—e.g. critical technology being developed by people who studied under professors who are currently students making career decisions. By 60 years it feels a bit too tenuous for me to hold on to.
I kind of agree that if looking at policy specifically a shorter time horizon feels good.
I like this! I sometimes use a perspective which is pretty close (though often think about 50 years rather than 30 years, and hold it in conjunction with “what are the challenges we might need to face in the next 50 years?”). I think 30 vs 50 years is a kind-of interesting question. I’ve thought about 50 because if I imagine e.g. that we’re going to face critical junctures with the development of AI in 40 years, that’s within the scope where I can imagine it being impacted by causal pathways that I can envision—e.g. critical technology being developed by people who studied under professors who are currently students making career decisions. By 60 years it feels a bit too tenuous for me to hold on to.
I kind of agree that if looking at policy specifically a shorter time horizon feels good.