To really make this update, I’d want some more bins than the ones Nuno provide. That is, there could be an “extremely more successful than expected” bin; and all that matters is whether you manage to get any grant in that bin.
(For example, I think Roam got a grant in 2018-2019, and they might fall in that bin, though I haven’t thought a lot about it.)
Yeah I agree that info on how much absolute impact each grant seems to have had would be more relevant for making such updates. (Though of course absolute impact is very hard to estimate.)
Strictly speaking the info in the OP is consistent with “99% of all impact came from one grant”, and it could even be one of the “Not as successful as hoped for”. (Though taking into account all context/info I would guess that the highest-impact grants would be in the bucket “More successful than expected”.) And if that was the case one shouldn’t make any updates that would be motivated by “this looks less heavy-tailed than I expected”.
To really make this update, I’d want some more bins than the ones Nuno provide. That is, there could be an “extremely more successful than expected” bin; and all that matters is whether you manage to get any grant in that bin.
(For example, I think Roam got a grant in 2018-2019, and they might fall in that bin, though I haven’t thought a lot about it.)
I would also want more bins than the ones I provide, i.e., not considering the total value is probably one of the parts I like less about this post.
Yeah I agree that info on how much absolute impact each grant seems to have had would be more relevant for making such updates. (Though of course absolute impact is very hard to estimate.)
Strictly speaking the info in the OP is consistent with “99% of all impact came from one grant”, and it could even be one of the “Not as successful as hoped for”. (Though taking into account all context/info I would guess that the highest-impact grants would be in the bucket “More successful than expected”.) And if that was the case one shouldn’t make any updates that would be motivated by “this looks less heavy-tailed than I expected”.