I’d be very interested in seeing a post from you on this. I don’t think it is obvious that:
double especially effective altruists should be investing in prizes more on the margin
as it might be that the ideal investment in them at this stage is still zero, even if that would change later. The counterfactuals with prizes are actually quite hard to evaluate—you could easily have no effect if the work was going to be done anyway (I think this bites harder here than in more typical granting). I’d love to see a well considered article on prizes, taking concerns like this into account.
I’d be very interested in seeing a post from you on this. I don’t think it is obvious that:
as it might be that the ideal investment in them at this stage is still zero, even if that would change later. The counterfactuals with prizes are actually quite hard to evaluate—you could easily have no effect if the work was going to be done anyway (I think this bites harder here than in more typical granting). I’d love to see a well considered article on prizes, taking concerns like this into account.