(I agree with other commenters that the most defensible position is that “we don’t know when AGI is coming”, and I have argued that AGI safety work is urgent even if we somehow knew that AGI is not soon, because of early decision points on R&D paths; see my take here. But I’ll answer the question anyway.) (Also, I seem to be almost the only one coming from this following direction, so take that as a giant red flag...)
I’ve been looking into the possibility that people will understand the brain’s algorithms well enough to make an AGI by copying them (at a high level). My assessment is: (1) I don’t think the algorithms are that horrifically complicated, (2) Lots of people in both neuroscience and AI are trying to do this as we speak, and (3) I think they’re making impressive progress, with the algorithms powering human intelligence (i.e. the neocortex) starting to crystallize into view on the horizon. I’ve written about a high-level technical specification for what neocortical algorithms are doing, and in the literature I’ve found impressive mid-level sketches of how these algorithms work, and low-level sketches of associated neural mechanisms (PM me for a reading list). The high-, mid-, and low-level pictures all feel like they kinda fit together into a coherent whole. There are plenty of missing details, but again, I feel like I can see it crystallizing into view. So that’s why I have a gut feeling that real-deal superintelligent AGI is coming in my lifetime, either by that path or another path that happens even faster. That said, I’m still saving for retirement :-P
(I agree with other commenters that the most defensible position is that “we don’t know when AGI is coming”, and I have argued that AGI safety work is urgent even if we somehow knew that AGI is not soon, because of early decision points on R&D paths; see my take here. But I’ll answer the question anyway.) (Also, I seem to be almost the only one coming from this following direction, so take that as a giant red flag...)
I’ve been looking into the possibility that people will understand the brain’s algorithms well enough to make an AGI by copying them (at a high level). My assessment is: (1) I don’t think the algorithms are that horrifically complicated, (2) Lots of people in both neuroscience and AI are trying to do this as we speak, and (3) I think they’re making impressive progress, with the algorithms powering human intelligence (i.e. the neocortex) starting to crystallize into view on the horizon. I’ve written about a high-level technical specification for what neocortical algorithms are doing, and in the literature I’ve found impressive mid-level sketches of how these algorithms work, and low-level sketches of associated neural mechanisms (PM me for a reading list). The high-, mid-, and low-level pictures all feel like they kinda fit together into a coherent whole. There are plenty of missing details, but again, I feel like I can see it crystallizing into view. So that’s why I have a gut feeling that real-deal superintelligent AGI is coming in my lifetime, either by that path or another path that happens even faster. That said, I’m still saving for retirement :-P