I think most technologies don’t end up scaling. This says 2 to 10% of patents make enough money to maintain protection. A prototype is not required for a patent, but there would be lots of demonstrated ideas in the lab that are not patented. There is also the concept of the Valley of Death in commercialization where most technologies die. This is not necessarily the same as technologies that would be a “big deal” but I think it is a useful reference class.
I think most technologies don’t end up scaling. This says 2 to 10% of patents make enough money to maintain protection. A prototype is not required for a patent, but there would be lots of demonstrated ideas in the lab that are not patented. There is also the concept of the Valley of Death in commercialization where most technologies die. This is not necessarily the same as technologies that would be a “big deal” but I think it is a useful reference class.