the theoretical framework linked to “do the most good” already gives us a way to think about how to choose causes while taking into account inter-cause spillovers
I think impact ‘spill-overs’ between causes is a good representation of how most EAs mentally think about the relationship between causes and impact. However, I see this as an inaccurate representation of what’s actually going on, and I suspect this leads to a substantial mis-allocation of resources.
I suspect that long term flow-through effects typically outweigh the immediate observable impact of working on any given cause (because flow-through effects accumulate indefinitely over time). ‘Spill-over’ suggests that impact can be neatly attributed to one cause or another, but in the context of complex systems (i.e. the world we live in), impact is often more accurately understood as resulting from many factors, including the interplay of a messy web of causes pursued over many decades.
I see ‘Earth optimization’, as a useful concept to help us develop our cause prioritisation methodology to better account for the inherent complexity of the world we aim to improve, better account for long run flow-through effects, and thus help us to allocate our resources more effectively as individuals and as a movement.
‘Spillover’ is a common term in economics, and I’m using it interchangeably with externalities/‘how causes affect other causes’.
‘Spill-over’ suggests that impact can be neatly attributed to one cause or another, but in the context of complex systems (i.e. the world we live in), impact is often more accurately understood as resulting from many factors, including the interplay of a messy web of causes pursued over many decades.
Spillovers can be simple or complex; nothing in the definition says they have to be “neatly attributed”. But you’re right, long-term flow-through effects can be massive. They’re also incredibly difficult to estimate. If you’re able to improve on our ability to estimate them, using complexity theory, then more power to you.
I think impact ‘spill-overs’ between causes is a good representation of how most EAs mentally think about the relationship between causes and impact. However, I see this as an inaccurate representation of what’s actually going on, and I suspect this leads to a substantial mis-allocation of resources.
I suspect that long term flow-through effects typically outweigh the immediate observable impact of working on any given cause (because flow-through effects accumulate indefinitely over time). ‘Spill-over’ suggests that impact can be neatly attributed to one cause or another, but in the context of complex systems (i.e. the world we live in), impact is often more accurately understood as resulting from many factors, including the interplay of a messy web of causes pursued over many decades.
I see ‘Earth optimization’, as a useful concept to help us develop our cause prioritisation methodology to better account for the inherent complexity of the world we aim to improve, better account for long run flow-through effects, and thus help us to allocate our resources more effectively as individuals and as a movement.
‘Spillover’ is a common term in economics, and I’m using it interchangeably with externalities/‘how causes affect other causes’.
Spillovers can be simple or complex; nothing in the definition says they have to be “neatly attributed”. But you’re right, long-term flow-through effects can be massive. They’re also incredibly difficult to estimate. If you’re able to improve on our ability to estimate them, using complexity theory, then more power to you.