The other number I found potentially concerning was the 50% drop in year-over-year funds from new non-anon donors (p. 10 of the 2023 metrics report, see paste below). Funds from new/non-anon donors in 2021 were slightly higher than in 2022 per the 2022 metrics report, so the prior year wasn’t the anomaly.
I don’t want to over-update on a single year’s Y/Y difference, but my concern would grow if 2024 ended up similar to 2023.
I would not have predicted much effect of the FTX affair on GiveWell’s new donor acquisition, but it’s possible that played a role.
Another thing to look at would be how donations in general changed in 2020-2024. From what I’ve read, there have been decreases in US giving (of around 2%).
Good observation—most of the drop in the number of new donors was seen in 2022, but little of the drop in the amount of donations from new donorshappened then [$43.4MM (2021) vs $41.1MM (2022) vs. $20.5MM (2023]. Because of their size, the bulk of the 2021 --> 2022 drop was almost certainly people giving under $1,000, which is somewhat less concerning to me due to the small percentage of GiveWell’s revenue that donations under $1K provide (less than 3%). There are a good number in the $1-$10K range, but they did not show a significant decline overall between 2021 and 2022.
Presumably, the 2022 --> 2023 drop in revenue involved loss of new higher-dollar donors. My assumption is that higher-dollar donors act somewhat differently than others (e.g., I expect they engage in more due diligence / research than those donating > $1,000 on average). So it’s plausible to me that the 2021 → 2022 numerical decline and the 2022 --> 2023 volume decline have (or do not have) very similar causes. I’d guess FTX might hit higher-dollar new donors more because of the extra due diligence.
The following chart is for all donors, not new ones:
The other number I found potentially concerning was the 50% drop in year-over-year funds from new non-anon donors (p. 10 of the 2023 metrics report, see paste below). Funds from new/non-anon donors in 2021 were slightly higher than in 2022 per the 2022 metrics report, so the prior year wasn’t the anomaly.
I don’t want to over-update on a single year’s Y/Y difference, but my concern would grow if 2024 ended up similar to 2023.
I would not have predicted much effect of the FTX affair on GiveWell’s new donor acquisition, but it’s possible that played a role.
Another thing to look at would be how donations in general changed in 2020-2024. From what I’ve read, there have been decreases in US giving (of around 2%).
FTX was late in 2022, but nonetheless 2022 already shows most of the drop in new donors.
I would expect most donations to be in giving season, though, which in 2022 would be after FTX collapsed
Good observation—most of the drop in the number of new donors was seen in 2022, but little of the drop in the amount of donations from new donors happened then [$43.4MM (2021) vs $41.1MM (2022) vs. $20.5MM (2023]. Because of their size, the bulk of the 2021 --> 2022 drop was almost certainly people giving under $1,000, which is somewhat less concerning to me due to the small percentage of GiveWell’s revenue that donations under $1K provide (less than 3%). There are a good number in the $1-$10K range, but they did not show a significant decline overall between 2021 and 2022.
Presumably, the 2022 --> 2023 drop in revenue involved loss of new higher-dollar donors. My assumption is that higher-dollar donors act somewhat differently than others (e.g., I expect they engage in more due diligence / research than those donating > $1,000 on average). So it’s plausible to me that the 2021 → 2022 numerical decline and the 2022 --> 2023 volume decline have (or do not have) very similar causes. I’d guess FTX might hit higher-dollar new donors more because of the extra due diligence.
The following chart is for all donors, not new ones: