Thanks to @Michael St Jules 🔸 for noting I may be significantly underestimating the effects on soil arthropods due to only considering mites and springtails. I agree. I estimate below the annual welfare of nonarboreal ants is similar to that of soil mites and springtails. However, I estimate the annual welfare of soil nematodes is 12.8 times that of soil mites and springtails, and therefore accounting for ants would not significantly change the effects on soil nematodes, mites, and springtails. In any case, accounting for more wild animals with negative lives would reinforce my conclusion that effects on them are much larger than effects on target beneficiaries.
From Rosenberg et al. (2023), “Our estimated global population of nonarboreal ants, considered as part of the soil and plant litter habitat, is 5 × 10^16 (uncertainty range, 1 × 10^16 to 9 × 10^16) individuals”. I assume the welfare per animal-year of a fully happy nonarboreal ant as a fraction of their welfare range is −38 %, as Geminiguessedfor soil springtails. In addition, I suppose the welfare range of a nonarboreal ant is 0.0133 (= 1.02*0.013), 1.02 times the value in RP’spostfor black soldier flies (BSF) of 0.013, considering RP’s estimate for the probability of sentience of antsis1.02 (= 0.3/0.294) times their estimate for BSF, and my guess that the welfare range conditional on sentience of nonarboreal ants is similar to that of BSF. So I infer nonarboreal ants have a welfare of −0.00505 QALY/animal-year (= −0.38*0.0133), and −2.52*10^14 QALY/year (= −0.00505*5*10^16), whichis−35.2 k (= −2.52*10^14/(7.16*10^9)) times my estimate for humans, 1.47 (= −2.52*10^14/(-1.72*10^14)) times my estimate for soil mites and springtails, but only 10.2 % (= −2.52*10^14/(-2.46*10^15)) of my estimate for soil nematodes, mites, and springtails.
Thanks to @Michael St Jules 🔸 for noting I may be significantly underestimating the effects on soil arthropods due to only considering mites and springtails. I agree. I estimate below the annual welfare of nonarboreal ants is similar to that of soil mites and springtails. However, I estimate the annual welfare of soil nematodes is 12.8 times that of soil mites and springtails, and therefore accounting for ants would not significantly change the effects on soil nematodes, mites, and springtails. In any case, accounting for more wild animals with negative lives would reinforce my conclusion that effects on them are much larger than effects on target beneficiaries.
From Rosenberg et al. (2023), “Our estimated global population of nonarboreal ants, considered as part of the soil and plant litter habitat, is 5 × 10^16 (uncertainty range, 1 × 10^16 to 9 × 10^16) individuals”. I assume the welfare per animal-year of a fully happy nonarboreal ant as a fraction of their welfare range is −38 %, as Gemini guessed for soil springtails. In addition, I suppose the welfare range of a nonarboreal ant is 0.0133 (= 1.02*0.013), 1.02 times the value in RP’s post for black soldier flies (BSF) of 0.013, considering RP’s estimate for the probability of sentience of ants is 1.02 (= 0.3/0.294) times their estimate for BSF, and my guess that the welfare range conditional on sentience of nonarboreal ants is similar to that of BSF. So I infer nonarboreal ants have a welfare of −0.00505 QALY/animal-year (= −0.38*0.0133), and −2.52*10^14 QALY/year (= −0.00505*5*10^16), which is −35.2 k (= −2.52*10^14/(7.16*10^9)) times my estimate for humans, 1.47 (= −2.52*10^14/(-1.72*10^14)) times my estimate for soil mites and springtails, but only 10.2 % (= −2.52*10^14/(-2.46*10^15)) of my estimate for soil nematodes, mites, and springtails.