Thanks, MichaelA! On neglectedness, it is true that $3 million is very large in this space. However, the Open Phil funded group decided to propose to work on alternative foods that they already had expertise in. This includes cellulosic sugar, duckweed, forest products including inner bark, mushrooms, and sprouts. With the exception of cellulosic sugar, these alternative foods are higher cost than the ones that ALLFED is prioritizing. Low cost is important for feeding nearly everyone and maintaining stability of civilization. Therefore, we don’t believe that the highest priority sun-blocking solutions (cellulosic sugar, methane single cell protein, hydrogen single cell protein, cold tolerant crops, greenhouses, seaweed, and leaf protein concentrate) are significantly less neglected now. Furthermore, the Open Phil funded project is generally not working on interventions for losing electricity/industry, so that remains highly neglected.
That’s useful info, and sounds to me like a fair point. Thanks :)
But then this strikes me as tying back into the idea that “Perhaps [ALLFED] seemingly not having been funded by the EA Long-Term Future Fund, Open Phil, and various other funders is evidence that there’s some reason not to support them, which I just haven’t recognised?”
Here that question can take a more concrete form: If Open Phil chose to fund a group that’d work on alternative foods that ALLFED thinks will be less promising than the alternative foods ALLFED focuses on, but didn’t choose to fund ALLFED (at least so far), does that mean:
Open Phil are making a mistake?
ALLFED are wrong about which foods are most promising?
Perhaps because they’re wrong about the relative costs, or because there are other considerations which outweigh the cost consideration?
ALLFED are right about which foods are most promising, but there’s some other overriding reason why the other team was a better donation opportunity?
E.g., perhaps at the present margin, what’s most needed is more academic credibility and that team could get it better than ALLFED could?
There’s some alternative explanation such that Open Phil’s decisions are sound but also ALLFED is a good donation opportunity?
E.g., perhaps there’s some reason why Open Phil in particular shouldn’t fund ALLFED at this stage, even if it thought ALLFED was a good opportunity for other donors?
I don’t really know how likely each of those possible implications are (and thus I don’t have strong reason to believe 2 or 3 are the most likely implications). So this is just a confusing thing and a potential argument against donating to ALLFED, rather than a clearly decisive argument.
I’d be interested in your (or other people’s) thoughts on this—but would also understand if this is inappropriate to discuss publicly.
(Btw, I wouldn’t want readers to interpret this as a major critique or an expression of strong doubt. I’d expect to have at least some doubt or reservation with regards to basically any place I choose to donate to, work for, etc. - prioritisation is hard! - and I’m still planning to give ~4% of my income this year to ALLFED.)
Thanks, MichaelA! On neglectedness, it is true that $3 million is very large in this space. However, the Open Phil funded group decided to propose to work on alternative foods that they already had expertise in. This includes cellulosic sugar, duckweed, forest products including inner bark, mushrooms, and sprouts. With the exception of cellulosic sugar, these alternative foods are higher cost than the ones that ALLFED is prioritizing. Low cost is important for feeding nearly everyone and maintaining stability of civilization. Therefore, we don’t believe that the highest priority sun-blocking solutions (cellulosic sugar, methane single cell protein, hydrogen single cell protein, cold tolerant crops, greenhouses, seaweed, and leaf protein concentrate) are significantly less neglected now. Furthermore, the Open Phil funded project is generally not working on interventions for losing electricity/industry, so that remains highly neglected.
That’s useful info, and sounds to me like a fair point. Thanks :)
But then this strikes me as tying back into the idea that “Perhaps [ALLFED] seemingly not having been funded by the EA Long-Term Future Fund, Open Phil, and various other funders is evidence that there’s some reason not to support them, which I just haven’t recognised?”
Here that question can take a more concrete form: If Open Phil chose to fund a group that’d work on alternative foods that ALLFED thinks will be less promising than the alternative foods ALLFED focuses on, but didn’t choose to fund ALLFED (at least so far), does that mean:
Open Phil are making a mistake?
ALLFED are wrong about which foods are most promising?
Perhaps because they’re wrong about the relative costs, or because there are other considerations which outweigh the cost consideration?
ALLFED are right about which foods are most promising, but there’s some other overriding reason why the other team was a better donation opportunity?
E.g., perhaps at the present margin, what’s most needed is more academic credibility and that team could get it better than ALLFED could?
There’s some alternative explanation such that Open Phil’s decisions are sound but also ALLFED is a good donation opportunity?
E.g., perhaps there’s some reason why Open Phil in particular shouldn’t fund ALLFED at this stage, even if it thought ALLFED was a good opportunity for other donors?
I don’t really know how likely each of those possible implications are (and thus I don’t have strong reason to believe 2 or 3 are the most likely implications). So this is just a confusing thing and a potential argument against donating to ALLFED, rather than a clearly decisive argument.
I’d be interested in your (or other people’s) thoughts on this—but would also understand if this is inappropriate to discuss publicly.
(Btw, I wouldn’t want readers to interpret this as a major critique or an expression of strong doubt. I’d expect to have at least some doubt or reservation with regards to basically any place I choose to donate to, work for, etc. - prioritisation is hard! - and I’m still planning to give ~4% of my income this year to ALLFED.)