Running with the valley metaphor, perhaps the 1990s were when we reached the most verdant floor of the valley. It remains unclear if we’re still there or have started to climb out and away from it, assuming the model to be correct.
I would actually bet on average democracy continuing to increase over the next few decades.* Over this timespan, I’m still pretty inclined to extrapolate the rising trend forward, rather than updating very much on the past decade or so of possible backsliding. It also seems relevant that many relatively poorer and less democratic countries are continuing to develop, supposing that development actually is an important factor in democratization.
I also don’t think there are any signs that automation is already playing a major role in democratic backsliding. (I think much more automation is probably necessary). So, unless there’s really rapid AI progress, I don’t expect the specific causal mechanism I’m nervous about to kick in for a while.
*Off the top of my head, conditional on the Polity project continuing to exist, I might say there’s something like a 70% chance that the average country’s Polity score is higher in 2050 than it is today.
Running with the valley metaphor, perhaps the 1990s were when we reached the most verdant floor of the valley. It remains unclear if we’re still there or have started to climb out and away from it, assuming the model to be correct.
I would actually bet on average democracy continuing to increase over the next few decades.* Over this timespan, I’m still pretty inclined to extrapolate the rising trend forward, rather than updating very much on the past decade or so of possible backsliding. It also seems relevant that many relatively poorer and less democratic countries are continuing to develop, supposing that development actually is an important factor in democratization.
I also don’t think there are any signs that automation is already playing a major role in democratic backsliding. (I think much more automation is probably necessary). So, unless there’s really rapid AI progress, I don’t expect the specific causal mechanism I’m nervous about to kick in for a while.
*Off the top of my head, conditional on the Polity project continuing to exist, I might say there’s something like a 70% chance that the average country’s Polity score is higher in 2050 than it is today.