Even if cannibalization happens, here are three questions that âmultiple well-designed studies analyzing substitution effects demonstrated that cultivated and plant-based meats appeal to sufficiently different consumer segmentsâ may not answer:
Would commercially viable cultivated meat more favorably alter consumer preferences over time?
A non-negligible portion of veg*ns abandon their veg*nism â would introduction of cultivated meat improve retention of animal-free consumption patterns?
How would introduction of cultivated meat affect flexitarian dietary choices? Flexitarians eat a combination of animal- and plant-based meat. When cultivated meat becomes commercially viable, would flexitarians replace the former or the latter with cultivated meat?
If the answer is a yes to any of these, I think that is a point in favor of cultivated meat. I expect cultural change to be a significant driver of reduced animal consumption, and this cultural change will only be possible if there is a stable class of consumers who normalize consumption of animal-free products.
To draw a historical parallel, when industrial chicken farming developed in the second half of the 20th century, people didnât eat less of other meats; they just ate chicken in addition.
Is this true? It seems that as chicken did displace beef consumption by 40% (assuming consumption ~ supply) or am I grossly misunderstanding the chart above?
Further, isnât there an upper bound to how much addition can happen? Meat became cheap and widely available, incomes rose, people started eating more of everything, so consumption increased. But there is only so much more that one can eat, so at some point people started making cost-based trade-offs between beef and chicken. If cultivated chicken were to be cheaper than animal-based beef or chicken, shouldnât we expect people to start making similar trade-offs?
Hello Akash and thank you for these pertinent questions! Iâll try to answer all of them, but please let me know if you feel Iâve missed any of your points.
âWould commercially viable cultivated meat more favorably alter consumer preferences over time?â
This is quite difficult to determine! Many studies on consumer attitudes make the assumption that cultivated meat would be priced similarly to other alternatives. Even in this scenario, it remains relatively unpopular and much less favored than plant-based options. For example, a study by Van Loo et al. (2020) attempted to define potential market shares of different meat alternatives through a DCE (Discrete Choice Experiment). This study found that cultivated meat had the lowest estimated market share among the alternatives tested. Interestingly, the study also observed significant variance in willingness-to-pay for cultivated meat, suggesting that some consumers are highly motivated and therefore less price-sensitive, while others want nothing to do with it.
Of course, the insights we can draw are limited: cultivated meat remains relatively unknown today, and even more so in 2020. We know that familiarity with a product influences consumer interest. We also know that peopleâs stated preferences often poorly reflect their actual consumption behavior, with a tendency to overestimate their willingness to try and adopt new products. So my answer would be: we donât know. And it would seem presumptuous to say yes.
âA non-negligible portion of vegns abandon their vegnism â would introduction of cultivated meat improve retention of animal-free consumption patterns?â
This is hard to say. From what we know fromcertainstudies, while veg*ns generally express more favorable attitudes toward cultivated meat than the average population, they exhibit less willingness to try it/âpay for it. This suggests theyâre supportive primarily because they see the environmental and ethical benefits, although they themselves might not be particularly interested. And again, we would need to see whether plant-based meat wouldnât serve just as well as cultivated meat in this case.
âHow would introduction of cultivated meat affect flexitarian dietary choices? Flexitarians eat a combination of animal- and plant-based meat. When cultivated meat becomes commercially viable, would flexitarians replace the former or the latter with cultivated meat?â
Thatâs an excellent question and one Iâm currently trying to answer in my ongoing research through a DCE! I should have more insights in a few months. :)
âIs this true? It seems that as chicken did displace beef consumption by 40% (assuming consumption ~ supply) or am I grossly misunderstanding the chart above? Further, isnât there an upper bound to how much addition can happen? Meat became cheap and widely available, incomes rose, people started eating more of everything, so consumption increased. But there is only so much more that one can eat, so at some point people started making cost-based trade-offs between beef and chicken. If cultivated chicken were to be cheaper than animal-based beef or chicken, shouldnât we expect people to start making similar trade-offs?â
Iâm more familiar with European figures. Looking at France, for example, we donât really observe a substitution effect between chicken and beef.
Regarding the United States, Iâm somewhat surprised by the sharp decline in the mid-70s, which occurred much more rapidly than the increase in chicken consumption during the same period. This suggests an external shock to me â perhaps due to the economic crisis â which would explain why beef was hit particularly hard, being the most expensive meat. This is especially notable given that beef consumption eventually stabilized while chicken consumption continued to increase from the 2010s onward.
However, this would require further investigation on my part. In any case, based on the graph youâve provided, itâs not obvious that chicken directly substituted for beef; there may simply have been a decrease in beef consumption, possibly due to external factors.
Furthermore, several sources are sometimes inconsistent regarding the evolution of meat consumption by product type, making it difficult to get a clear picture. For instance, in France, thereâs a discrepancy between World Bank data and data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Similarly here in the US, World Bank data presents a different picture than USDA data.
In short, this is all quite complicated and would require an entire post to untangle. However, I maintain my position that the increase in chicken consumption did not lead to a major substitution effect for beef consumption. In my view, the reduction in beef consumption is explained by other factors, particularly economic issues, health concerns, and more recently, environmental considerations.
Thanks, great post!
A few follow-up questions and pushbacks:
Even if cannibalization happens, here are three questions that âmultiple well-designed studies analyzing substitution effects demonstrated that cultivated and plant-based meats appeal to sufficiently different consumer segmentsâ may not answer:
Would commercially viable cultivated meat more favorably alter consumer preferences over time?
A non-negligible portion of veg*ns abandon their veg*nism â would introduction of cultivated meat improve retention of animal-free consumption patterns?
How would introduction of cultivated meat affect flexitarian dietary choices? Flexitarians eat a combination of animal- and plant-based meat. When cultivated meat becomes commercially viable, would flexitarians replace the former or the latter with cultivated meat?
If the answer is a yes to any of these, I think that is a point in favor of cultivated meat. I expect cultural change to be a significant driver of reduced animal consumption, and this cultural change will only be possible if there is a stable class of consumers who normalize consumption of animal-free products.
Is this true? It seems that as chicken did displace beef consumption by 40% (assuming consumption ~ supply) or am I grossly misunderstanding the chart above?
Further, isnât there an upper bound to how much addition can happen? Meat became cheap and widely available, incomes rose, people started eating more of everything, so consumption increased. But there is only so much more that one can eat, so at some point people started making cost-based trade-offs between beef and chicken. If cultivated chicken were to be cheaper than animal-based beef or chicken, shouldnât we expect people to start making similar trade-offs?
Hello Akash and thank you for these pertinent questions! Iâll try to answer all of them, but please let me know if you feel Iâve missed any of your points.
âWould commercially viable cultivated meat more favorably alter consumer preferences over time?â
This is quite difficult to determine! Many studies on consumer attitudes make the assumption that cultivated meat would be priced similarly to other alternatives. Even in this scenario, it remains relatively unpopular and much less favored than plant-based options. For example, a study by Van Loo et al. (2020) attempted to define potential market shares of different meat alternatives through a DCE (Discrete Choice Experiment). This study found that cultivated meat had the lowest estimated market share among the alternatives tested. Interestingly, the study also observed significant variance in willingness-to-pay for cultivated meat, suggesting that some consumers are highly motivated and therefore less price-sensitive, while others want nothing to do with it.
Of course, the insights we can draw are limited: cultivated meat remains relatively unknown today, and even more so in 2020. We know that familiarity with a product influences consumer interest. We also know that peopleâs stated preferences often poorly reflect their actual consumption behavior, with a tendency to overestimate their willingness to try and adopt new products. So my answer would be: we donât know. And it would seem presumptuous to say yes.
âA non-negligible portion of vegns abandon their vegnism â would introduction of cultivated meat improve retention of animal-free consumption patterns?â
This is hard to say. From what we know from certain studies, while veg*ns generally express more favorable attitudes toward cultivated meat than the average population, they exhibit less willingness to try it/âpay for it. This suggests theyâre supportive primarily because they see the environmental and ethical benefits, although they themselves might not be particularly interested. And again, we would need to see whether plant-based meat wouldnât serve just as well as cultivated meat in this case.
âHow would introduction of cultivated meat affect flexitarian dietary choices? Flexitarians eat a combination of animal- and plant-based meat. When cultivated meat becomes commercially viable, would flexitarians replace the former or the latter with cultivated meat?â
Thatâs an excellent question and one Iâm currently trying to answer in my ongoing research through a DCE! I should have more insights in a few months. :)
âIs this true? It seems that as chicken did displace beef consumption by 40% (assuming consumption ~ supply) or am I grossly misunderstanding the chart above? Further, isnât there an upper bound to how much addition can happen? Meat became cheap and widely available, incomes rose, people started eating more of everything, so consumption increased. But there is only so much more that one can eat, so at some point people started making cost-based trade-offs between beef and chicken. If cultivated chicken were to be cheaper than animal-based beef or chicken, shouldnât we expect people to start making similar trade-offs?â
Iâm more familiar with European figures. Looking at France, for example, we donât really observe a substitution effect between chicken and beef.
Regarding the United States, Iâm somewhat surprised by the sharp decline in the mid-70s, which occurred much more rapidly than the increase in chicken consumption during the same period. This suggests an external shock to me â perhaps due to the economic crisis â which would explain why beef was hit particularly hard, being the most expensive meat. This is especially notable given that beef consumption eventually stabilized while chicken consumption continued to increase from the 2010s onward.
However, this would require further investigation on my part. In any case, based on the graph youâve provided, itâs not obvious that chicken directly substituted for beef; there may simply have been a decrease in beef consumption, possibly due to external factors.
Furthermore, several sources are sometimes inconsistent regarding the evolution of meat consumption by product type, making it difficult to get a clear picture. For instance, in France, thereâs a discrepancy between World Bank data and data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Similarly here in the US, World Bank data presents a different picture than USDA data.
In short, this is all quite complicated and would require an entire post to untangle. However, I maintain my position that the increase in chicken consumption did not lead to a major substitution effect for beef consumption. In my view, the reduction in beef consumption is explained by other factors, particularly economic issues, health concerns, and more recently, environmental considerations.